NFLMon 7:15 PM CTLincoln Financial Field

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles

TV · ESPN

Mon 7:15 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

PHI +4.5

54%

DAL 24.19–20.55 PHI

Data-Driven Pick · C. Lamb Under 82.5 rec yds

-110

Dallas Cowboys

2-4 · L2

151 PF · 159 PA

24.19

Projected

Philadelphia Eagles

2-4 · L4 · computer pick

106 PF · 137 PA

20.55

DAL 61%PHI 39%

Projected DAL 24.19–20.55 PHI

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

DAL -1.9

DAL -4.5

Total

45.2

44.5

Gap: +2.6 margin, +0.7 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2020–2025, 1,610 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2226 vs old model 0.2307 vs closing line 0.2102. The closing line was more accurate than our model; that is why the final projection leans on the market. We also tested a play-by-play simulator built on real NFL plays (sim v3, Brier 0.2223 run the way the live site would run it): not clearly better, so it drives the replay only, not these numbers.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: DAL vs PHI

The model

How this number was built

DAL 24.19–20.55 PHI · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
PHI -4.7 vs DAL +1.6 · pred margin -3.6
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
EPA/play (opp-adj.) PHI off -0.08, def stop +0.02 · DAL off +0.05, def stop -0.12 · model PHI 24.9–22.0 DAL
Home field
+2.4 pts to PHI
Record
PHI 2-4 · DAL 2-4
Market prior
Blended 68% toward DAL -4.5 / total 44.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Dak Prescott
Pass 163/246, 1639 YDS, 10 TD, 5 INT
Javonte Williams
Rush 85 CAR, 317 YDS, 7 TD
CeeDee Lamb
Rec 48 REC, 577 YDS, 4 TD

Tanner McKee
Pass 26/45, 215 YDS, 1 TD
Saquon Barkley
Rush 36 CAR, 182 YDS
DeVonta Smith
Rec 26 REC, 310 YDS, 2 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	DAL	PHI
Points Per Game	25.2	17.7
Total Yards	349.2	273.5
Yards Passing	273.2	191.3
Yards Rushing	76.0	82.2
Points Allowed Per Game	26.5	22.8
Yards Allowed	389.0	373.2
Pass Yards Allowed	239.2	253.8
Rush Yards Allowed	149.8	119.3

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

Data-Driven PickComputer pick

C. Lamb Under 82.5 rec yds

-11066%

Receiving yards · DraftKings

C. Lamb Under 7.5 rec
Receptions · DAL
-110
64%
D. Prescott anytime TD
Anytime TD · DAL
-110
61%
C. Lamb anytime TD
Anytime TD · DAL
-110
61%
J. Williams anytime TD
Anytime TD · DAL
-110
61%
J. Williams Over 12.5 rec yds
Receiving yards · DAL
-110
59%
J. Williams Over 2.5 rec
Receptions · DAL
-110
58%
D. Prescott Under 266.5 pass yds
Passing yards · DAL
-110
58%
DAL anytime TD
Anytime TD · DAL
-110
58%
PHI anytime TD
Anytime TD · PHI
-110
58%
D. Smith anytime TD
Anytime TD · PHI
-110
55%
T. McKee anytime TD
Anytime TD · PHI
-110
55%

Cowboys vs Eagles prediction · Oct 26, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is PHI +4.5, with a 54% model probability. The model projects Cowboys 24.2, Eagles 20.6. Model win probability: Eagles 39%, Cowboys 61%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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