Süper LigMon 1:30 PM CTRAMS Park

Fenerbahce at Galatasaray

Mon 1:30 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Under 3.5

53%

Now FEN 1.53–1.98 GAL · pick locked earlier at Under 3.5; model has since moved

Players

V. Muriqi · FEN
Forward
V. Osimhen · GAL
Forward

Data-Driven Pick · V. Osimhen anytime goal

-120

Fenerbahce

5-1-2

Form DWLWW · 22 PF · 6 PA

1.53

Projected

Galatasaray

6-1-1

Form DWLWL · 17 PF · 11 PA

1.98

FEN 29%Draw 24%GAL 47%

Projected FEN 1.53–1.98 GAL · most likely 1–1

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

GAL win

57%

61% (no-vig)

Total

3.54

3.5

Gap: -4 pts of win %, +0.04 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 538 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.1951 vs old model 0.2279. Added Oct 2026: attack/defence goal ratings from ESPN results (goals only). The v1 column here is the league's home/draw/away base rates, not an older model. No free archive of closing lines for this league yet; the final projection still leans on the DraftKings line.

The model

How this number was built

FEN 1.53–1.98 GAL · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): GAL att +0.40 / def +0.32 · FEN att +0.53 / def +0.22 · model GAL 2.0–1.6 FEN
Home field
+0.3 goals to GAL
Record
GAL 6-1-1 · FEN 5-1-2
Market prior
Blended 66% toward GAL +105 / total 3.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Vedat Muriqi
goals 7
Vedat Muriqi
goalsleaders 7

Victor Osimhen
goals 6
Victor Osimhen
goalsleaders 6

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	FEN	GAL
Goal Difference	16	6
Total Goals	22	17
Assists	16	10
Goals Against	6	11

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

Data-Driven PickComputer pick

V. Osimhen anytime goal

-12055%

Anytime goal · DraftKings

V. Muriqi anytime goal
Anytime goal · FEN
+165
38%
M. Greenwood anytime goal
Anytime goal · FEN
+165
38%
R. Lukaku anytime goal
Anytime goal · FEN
+180
36%
L. Sané anytime goal
Anytime goal · GAL
+250
29%
G. Gomes anytime goal
Anytime goal · GAL
+400
20%
I. Kahveci anytime goal
Anytime goal · FEN
+425
19%
O. Aydin anytime goal
Anytime goal · FEN
+425
19%
R. Sallai anytime goal
Anytime goal · GAL
+700
13%
R. Nhaga anytime goal
Anytime goal · GAL
+700
13%
L. Ugochukwu anytime goal
Anytime goal · GAL
+800
11%
M. Lemina anytime goal
Anytime goal · GAL
+1000
9%

Fenerbahce vs Galatasaray prediction · Oct 26, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 53% model probability. The model projects Fenerbahce 1.5, Galatasaray 2.0. Model win probability: Galatasaray 47%, Fenerbahce 29%, draw 24%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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