Süper LigMon 11:00 AM CTVodafone Park

Istanbul Basaksehir at Besiktas

Mon 11:00 AM CT

Computer pick · Total

Under 3.5

56%

At lock IBFK 1.04–2.36 BES · 0.1 goals under 3.5 · 56% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

E. Shomurodov · IBFK
Forward
D. Vlahovic · BES
Forward

Data-Driven Pick · D. Vlahovic anytime goal

-120

Istanbul Basaksehir

3-2-3

Form DDWLL · 12 PF · 12 PA

1.04

Projected

Besiktas

5-0-3

Form DLWWL · 16 PF · 10 PA

2.36

IBFK 15%Draw 20%BES 65%

At lock: projected IBFK 1.04–2.36 BES · most likely 1–2

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

BES win

62%

83% (no-vig)

Total

3.01

3.5

Gap: -21 pts of win %, -0.49 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 538 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.1951 vs old model 0.2279. Added Oct 2026: attack/defence goal ratings from ESPN results (goals only). The v1 column here is the league's home/draw/away base rates, not an older model. No free archive of closing lines for this league yet; the final projection still leans on the DraftKings line.

The model

How this number was built

IBFK 1.04–2.36 BES · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): BES att +0.17 / def +0.17 · IBFK att +0.12 / def +0.08 · model BES 1.8–1.2 IBFK
Home field
+0.3 goals to BES
Record
BES 5-0-3 · IBFK 3-2-3
Market prior
Blended 80% toward BES -260 / total 3.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Eldor Shomurodov
goals 7
Eldor Shomurodov
goalsleaders 7

Dusan Vlahovic
goals 6
Dusan Vlahovic
goalsleaders 6

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	IBFK	BES
Goal Difference	0	6
Total Goals	12	16
Assists	7	9
Goals Against	12	10

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

Data-Driven PickComputer pick

D. Vlahovic anytime goal

-11553%

Anytime goal · DraftKings

O. Hyeon-Gyu anytime goal
Anytime goal · BES
-105
51%
L. Trossard anytime goal
Anytime goal · BES
+165
38%
E. Poku anytime goal
Anytime goal · BES
+190
34%
I. Fakili anytime goal
Anytime goal · BES
+190
34%
M. Rashica anytime goal
Anytime goal · BES
+225
31%
J. Olaitan anytime goal
Anytime goal · BES
+245
29%
E. Shomurodov anytime goal
Anytime goal · IBFK
+265
27%
E. Visca anytime goal
Anytime goal · IBFK
+500
17%
A. Skov Olsen anytime goal
Anytime goal · IBFK
+500
17%
Y. Sari anytime goal
Anytime goal · IBFK
+600
14%
K. Ouattara anytime goal
Anytime goal · BES
+600
14%

Istanbul BB vs Besiktas prediction · Oct 26, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 56% model probability. The model projected Istanbul BB 1.0, Besiktas 2.4 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Besiktas 65%, Istanbul BB 15%, draw 20%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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