ScotlandSat 9:00 AM CTTannadice Park

Aberdeen at Dundee United

Sat 9:00 AM CT

Computer pick · Total

Under 2.5

56%

At lock ABE 1.07–1.35 DUN · 0.1 goals under 2.5

Players

K. Nisbet · ABE
Forwards
J. Randall · DUN
Forwards

Aberdeen

3-2-4

Form DLDWW · 10 PF · 10 PA

1.07

Projected

Dundee United

3-3-3

Form DWWDL · 11 PF · 12 PA

1.35

ABE 28%Draw 30%DUN 42%

At lock: projected ABE 1.07–1.35 DUN · most likely 1–1

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

DUN win

57%

60% (no-vig)

Total

2.42

2.5

Gap: -3 pts of win %, -0.08 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 355 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2052 vs old model 0.2310. Added Oct 2026: attack/defence goal ratings from ESPN results (goals only). The v1 column here is the league's home/draw/away base rates, not an older model. No free archive of closing lines for this league yet; the final projection still leans on the DraftKings line.

The model

How this number was built

ABE 1.07–1.35 DUN · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): DUN att -0.30 / def -0.10 · ABE att -0.35 / def -0.04 · model DUN 1.4–1.1 ABE
Home field
+0.3 goals to DUN
Record
DUN 3-3-3 · ABE 3-2-4

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Kevin Nisbet
goals 4
Kevin Nisbet
goalsleaders 4

Jesse Randall
goals 2
Jesse Randall
goalsleaders 2

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

J. Randall anytime goal
Anytime goal · DUN
+220
31%
D. Bennie anytime goal
Anytime goal · DUN
+245
29%
W. Ferry anytime goal
Anytime goal · DUN
+750
12%
B. Lyons anytime goal
Anytime goal · ABE
+800
11%
Z. Iqbal anytime goal
Anytime goal · DUN
+800
11%
K. Ciubotaru anytime goal
Anytime goal · DUN
+850
11%

Aberdeen vs Dundee Utd prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 2.5, with a 56% model probability. The model projected Aberdeen 1.1, Dundee Utd 1.4 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Dundee Utd 42%, Aberdeen 28%, draw 30%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: Scotland picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day