ScotlandSat 9:00 AM CTFalkirk Stadium

Kilmarnock at Falkirk

Sat 9:00 AM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 2.5

63%

At lock KIL 1.23–1.99 FALK · 0.7 goals over 2.5

Players

G. Kiltie · KIL
Forwards
J. Murrell · FALK
Forwards

Kilmarnock

2-2-5

Form DLDWL · 10 PF · 20 PA

1.23

Projected

Falkirk

2-3-4

Form DLDWD · 9 PF · 12 PA

1.99

KIL 23%Draw 24%FALK 54%

At lock: projected KIL 1.23–1.99 FALK · most likely 1–1 · likeliest Over 2.5 score 1–2

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

FALK win

66%

68% (no-vig)

Total

3.23

2.5

Gap: -2 pts of win %, +0.73 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 355 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2052 vs old model 0.2310. Added Oct 2026: attack/defence goal ratings from ESPN results (goals only). The v1 column here is the league's home/draw/away base rates, not an older model. No free archive of closing lines for this league yet; the final projection still leans on the DraftKings line.

The model

How this number was built

KIL 1.23–1.99 FALK · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): FALK att -0.17 / def -0.13 · KIL att -0.23 / def -0.30 · model FALK 2.0–1.2 KIL
Home field
+0.3 goals to FALK
Record
FALK 2-3-4 · KIL 2-2-5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Greg Kiltie
goals 3
Greg Kiltie
goalsleaders 3

Jacob Murrell
goals 4
Jacob Murrell
goalsleaders 4

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

O. Eames anytime goal
Anytime goal · FALK
+265
27%
A. Tshibola anytime goal
Anytime goal · KIL
+1100
8%
B. Rice anytime goal
Anytime goal · KIL
+1100
8%
C. McCarthy anytime goal
Anytime goal · KIL
+1800
6%

Kilmarnock vs Falkirk prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 63% model probability. The model projected Kilmarnock 1.2, Falkirk 2.0 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Falkirk 54%, Kilmarnock 23%, draw 24%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: Scotland picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day