ScotlandSat 9:00 AM CTIbrox Stadium

St Johnstone at Rangers

Sat 9:00 AM CT

Computer pick · Total

Under 3.5

61%

At lock STJ 0.70–2.49 RAN · 0.3 goals under 3.5

Players

J. Fowler · STJ
Forwards
R. Naderi · RAN
Forwards

St Johnstone

3-3-3

Form DWDLW · 11 PF · 11 PA

0.70

Projected

Rangers

6-2-1

Form DWWWW · 13 PF · 7 PA

2.49

STJ 8%Draw 17%RAN 75%

At lock: projected STJ 0.70–2.49 RAN · most likely 0–2

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

RAN win

84%

90% (no-vig)

Total

3.18

3.5

Gap: -6 pts of win %, -0.32 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 355 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2052 vs old model 0.2310. Added Oct 2026: attack/defence goal ratings from ESPN results (goals only). The v1 column here is the league's home/draw/away base rates, not an older model. No free archive of closing lines for this league yet; the final projection still leans on the DraftKings line.

The model

How this number was built

STJ 0.70–2.49 RAN · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): RAN att +0.23 / def +0.20 · STJ att -0.48 / def -0.12 · model RAN 2.5–0.7 STJ
Home field
+0.3 goals to RAN
Record
RAN 6-2-1 · STJ 3-3-3

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Josh Fowler
goals 6
Josh Fowler
goalsleaders 6

Ryan Naderi
goals 4
Ryan Naderi
goalsleaders 4

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

B. Miovski anytime goal
Anytime goal · RAN
+110
48%
D. Gassama anytime goal
Anytime goal · RAN
+185
35%
F. Curtis anytime goal
Anytime goal · RAN
+190
34%
B. Bouanani anytime goal
Anytime goal · RAN
+255
28%
N. Raskin anytime goal
Anytime goal · RAN
+425
19%
E. Fernandez anytime goal
Anytime goal · RAN
+500
17%
C. Devlin anytime goal
Anytime goal · RAN
+650
13%
D. Sterling anytime goal
Anytime goal · RAN
+800
11%
R. McCrorie anytime goal
Anytime goal · RAN
+950
10%
K. Nedeljkovic anytime goal
Anytime goal · RAN
+1100
8%
O. Makhanya anytime goal
Anytime goal · RAN
+1400
7%

St Johnstone vs Rangers prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 61% model probability. The model projected St Johnstone 0.7, Rangers 2.5 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Rangers 75%, St Johnstone 8%, draw 17%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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