ScotlandSat 9:00 AM CTThe SMISA Stadium

Dundee at St Mirren

Sat 9:00 AM CT

Computer pick · Total

Under 2.5

54%

Now DUN 1.29–1.23 STM · pick locked earlier at Under 2.5; model has since moved

Players

J. Westley · DUN
Forwards
K. Phillips · STM
Midfield

Dundee

4-2-3

Form DWWLD · 13 PF · 10 PA

1.29

Projected

St Mirren

3-1-5

Form DLLLL · 9 PF · 17 PA

1.23

DUN 37%Draw 29%STM 34%

Projected DUN 1.29–1.23 STM · most likely 1–1

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

STM win

49%

57% (no-vig)

Total

2.52

2.5

Gap: -8 pts of win %, +0.02 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 355 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2052 vs old model 0.2310. Added Oct 2026: attack/defence goal ratings from ESPN results (goals only). The v1 column here is the league's home/draw/away base rates, not an older model. No free archive of closing lines for this league yet; the final projection still leans on the DraftKings line.

The model

How this number was built

DUN 1.29–1.23 STM · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): STM att -0.48 / def -0.14 · DUN att -0.20 / def -0.13 · model STM 1.2–1.3 DUN
Home field
+0.3 goals to STM
Record
STM 3-1-5 · DUN 4-2-3

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Joe Westley
goals 3
Joe Westley
goalsleaders 3

Killian Phillips
goals 3
Killian Phillips
goalsleaders 3

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

E. Sule anytime goal
Anytime goal · STM
+200
33%
C. Ramsay anytime goal
Anytime goal · STM
+1100
8%
M. Akinmboni anytime goal
Anytime goal · DUN
+3000
6%

Dundee vs St Mirren prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 2.5, with a 54% model probability. The pick locked before the game; the model has since moved and now projects Dundee 1.3, St Mirren 1.2. Model win probability: St Mirren 34%, Dundee 37%, draw 29%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: Scotland picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day