ScotlandWed 2:45 PM CTPittodrie Stadium

Falkirk at Aberdeen

Wed 2:45 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 2.5

50%

At lock FALK 1.27–1.42 ABE · 0.2 goals over 2.5 · 50% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

J. Murrell · FALK
Forward
K. Nisbet · ABE
Forward

Falkirk

3-3-4

Form DWLDW · 12 PF · 12 PA

1.27

Projected

Aberdeen

3-2-5

Form DWLDW · 12 PF · 13 PA

1.42

FALK 32%Draw 28%ABE 39%

At lock: projected FALK 1.27–1.42 ABE · most likely 1–1 · likeliest Over 2.5 score 1–2

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

ABE win

53%

65% (no-vig)

Total

2.69

2.5

Gap: -12 pts of win %, +0.19 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 355 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2052 vs old model 0.2310. Added Oct 2026: attack/defence goal ratings from ESPN results (goals only). The v1 column here is the league's home/draw/away base rates, not an older model. No free archive of closing lines for this league yet; the final projection still leans on the DraftKings line.

The model

How this number was built

FALK 1.27–1.42 ABE · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): ABE att -0.33 / def -0.08 · FALK att -0.15 / def -0.10 · model ABE 1.4–1.3 FALK
Home field
+0.3 goals to ABE
Record
ABE 3-2-5 · FALK 3-3-4

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Jacob Murrell
goals 5
Jacob Murrell
goalsleaders 5

Kevin Nisbet
goals 4
Kevin Nisbet
goalsleaders 4

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	FALK	ABE
Goal Difference	0	-1
Total Goals	12	12
Assists	6	9
Goals Against	12	13

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

O. Eames anytime goal
Anytime goal · FALK
+360
22%
B. Lyons anytime goal
Anytime goal · ABE
+500
17%

Falkirk vs Aberdeen prediction · Oct 28, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 50% model probability. The model projected Falkirk 1.3, Aberdeen 1.4 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Aberdeen 39%, Falkirk 32%, draw 28%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: Scotland picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day