ScotlandWed 2:45 PM CTThe Scot Foam Stadium at Dens Park

Kilmarnock at Dundee

Wed 2:45 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 2.5

63%

At lock KIL 1.23–2.00 DUN · 0.7 goals over 2.5 · 63% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

G. Kiltie · KIL
Forward
B. Fink · DUN
Forward

Kilmarnock

2-2-6

Form DWLDW · 10 PF · 23 PA

1.23

Projected

Dundee

4-2-4

Form LDWWL · 14 PF · 12 PA

2.00

KIL 22%Draw 24%DUN 54%

At lock: projected KIL 1.23–2.00 DUN · most likely 1–1 · likeliest Over 2.5 score 1–2

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

DUN win

66%

64% (no-vig)

Total

3.23

2.5

Gap: +2 pts of win %, +0.73 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 355 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2052 vs old model 0.2310. Added Oct 2026: attack/defence goal ratings from ESPN results (goals only). The v1 column here is the league's home/draw/away base rates, not an older model. No free archive of closing lines for this league yet; the final projection still leans on the DraftKings line.

The model

How this number was built

KIL 1.23–2.00 DUN · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): DUN att -0.20 / def -0.15 · KIL att -0.25 / def -0.32 · model DUN 2.0–1.2 KIL
Home field
+0.3 goals to DUN
Record
DUN 4-2-4 · KIL 2-2-6

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Greg Kiltie
goals 3
Greg Kiltie
goalsleaders 3

Bradley Fink
goals 4
Bradley Fink
goalsleaders 4

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	KIL	DUN
Goal Difference	-13	2
Total Goals	10	14
Assists	5	6
Goals Against	23	12

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

A. Tshibola anytime goal
Anytime goal · KIL
+950
10%
B. Rice anytime goal
Anytime goal · KIL
+1000
9%
C. McCarthy anytime goal
Anytime goal · KIL
+1500
6%
M. Akinmboni anytime goal
Anytime goal · DUN
+2500
6%

Kilmarnock vs Dundee prediction · Oct 28, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 63% model probability. The model projected Kilmarnock 1.2, Dundee 2.0 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Dundee 54%, Kilmarnock 22%, draw 24%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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