ScotlandWed 3:00 PM CTTynecastle Park

Rangers at Heart of Midlothian

Wed 3:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 2.5

60%

At lock RAN 1.53–1.58 HOM · 0.6 goals over 2.5 · 60% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

R. Naderi · RAN
Forward
C. Braga · HOM
Forward

Rangers

7-2-1

Form DDWWW · 17 PF · 7 PA

1.53

Projected

Heart of Midlothian

6-1-3

Form DLLDW · 22 PF · 15 PA

1.58

RAN 35%Draw 26%HOM 39%

At lock: projected RAN 1.53–1.58 HOM · most likely 1–1 · likeliest Over 2.5 score 1–2

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

HOM win

52%

40% (no-vig)

Total

3.07

2.5

Gap: +12 pts of win %, +0.57 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 355 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2052 vs old model 0.2310. Added Oct 2026: attack/defence goal ratings from ESPN results (goals only). The v1 column here is the league's home/draw/away base rates, not an older model. No free archive of closing lines for this league yet; the final projection still leans on the DraftKings line.

The model

How this number was built

RAN 1.53–1.58 HOM · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): HOM att +0.10 / def +0.18 · RAN att +0.26 / def +0.21 · model HOM 1.6–1.5 RAN
Home field
+0.3 goals to HOM
Record
HOM 6-1-3 · RAN 7-2-1

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Ryan Naderi
goals 5
Ryan Naderi
goalsleaders 5

Cláudio Braga
goals 4
Cláudio Braga
goalsleaders 4

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	RAN	HOM
Goal Difference	10	7
Total Goals	17	22
Assists	8	13
Goals Against	7	15

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

R. Naderi anytime goal
Anytime goal · RAN
+185
35%
B. Miovski anytime goal
Anytime goal · RAN
+215
32%
D. Gassama anytime goal
Anytime goal · RAN
+275
27%
F. Curtis anytime goal
Anytime goal · RAN
+295
25%
J. Wilson anytime goal
Anytime goal · HOM
+310
24%
B. Bouanani anytime goal
Anytime goal · RAN
+370
21%
N. Raskin anytime goal
Anytime goal · RAN
+750
12%
E. Fernandez anytime goal
Anytime goal · RAN
+900
10%
C. Devlin anytime goal
Anytime goal · RAN
+1100
8%
R. McCrorie anytime goal
Anytime goal · RAN
+1500
6%
D. Sterling anytime goal
Anytime goal · RAN
+1700
6%
O. Makhanya anytime goal
Anytime goal · RAN
+2500
6%

Rangers vs Hearts prediction · Oct 28, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 60% model probability. The model projected Rangers 1.5, Hearts 1.6 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Hearts 39%, Rangers 35%, draw 26%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: Scotland picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day