ScotlandWed 2:45 PM CTThe SMISA Stadium

Hibernian at St Mirren

Wed 2:45 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Under 2.5

57%

At lock HIBS 1.36–1.03 STM · 0.1 goals under 2.5 · 57% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

M. Boyle · HIBS
Forward
K. Phillips · STM
Midfielder

Hibernian

2-1-7

Form DLLDL · 10 PF · 16 PA

1.36

Projected

St Mirren

4-1-5

Form DLLLL · 11 PF · 18 PA

1.03

HIBS 43%Draw 30%STM 27%

At lock: projected HIBS 1.36–1.03 STM · most likely 1–1

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

STM win

42%

38% (no-vig)

Total

2.39

2.5

Gap: +4 pts of win %, -0.11 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 355 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2052 vs old model 0.2310. Added Oct 2026: attack/defence goal ratings from ESPN results (goals only). The v1 column here is the league's home/draw/away base rates, not an older model. No free archive of closing lines for this league yet; the final projection still leans on the DraftKings line.

The model

How this number was built

HIBS 1.36–1.03 STM · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): STM att -0.47 / def -0.13 · HIBS att -0.14 / def +0.08 · model STM 1.0–1.4 HIBS
Home field
+0.3 goals to STM
Record
STM 4-1-5 · HIBS 2-1-7

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Martin Boyle
goals 3
Martin Boyle
goalsleaders 3

Killian Phillips
goals 3
Killian Phillips
goalsleaders 3

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	HIBS	STM
Goal Difference	-6	-7
Total Goals	10	11
Assists	7	9
Goals Against	16	18

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

M. Boyle anytime goal
Anytime goal · HIBS
+205
33%
E. Sule anytime goal
Anytime goal · STM
+220
31%
R. Matondo anytime goal
Anytime goal · HIBS
+260
28%
C. Wright anytime goal
Anytime goal · HIBS
+290
26%
C. Ramsay anytime goal
Anytime goal · STM
+900
10%
J. Kerr anytime goal
Anytime goal · HIBS
+1100
8%
A. Williams anytime goal
Anytime goal · HIBS
+1900
6%
G. Hanley anytime goal
Anytime goal · HIBS
+1600
6%
M. Ivezic anytime goal
Anytime goal · HIBS
+2000
6%

Hibernian vs St Mirren prediction · Oct 28, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 2.5, with a 57% model probability. The model projected Hibernian 1.4, St Mirren 1.0 when the pick locked. Model win probability: St Mirren 27%, Hibernian 43%, draw 30%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: Scotland picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day