Saudi ProTue 7:40 AM CTPrince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium

Al Faisaly at Abha

Tue 7:40 AM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 2.5

59%

At lock ALF 1.84–1.22 ABH · 0.6 goals over 2.5 · 59% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

A. Mendy · ALF
Forward
A. Gory · ABH
Forward

Al Faisaly

1-4-5

Form DDWLD · 11 PF · 20 PA

1.84

Projected

Abha

0-2-7

Form DLDLL · 6 PF · 17 PA

1.22

ALF 51%Draw 25%ABH 24%

At lock: projected ALF 1.84–1.22 ABH · most likely 1–1 · likeliest Over 2.5 score 2–1

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

ABH win

37%

62% (no-vig)

Total

3.06

2.5

Gap: -25 pts of win %, +0.56 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 556 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.1883 vs old model 0.2351. Added Oct 2026: attack/defence goal ratings from ESPN results (goals only). The v1 column here is the league's home/draw/away base rates, not an older model. No free archive of closing lines for this league yet; the final projection still leans on the DraftKings line.

The model

How this number was built

ALF 1.84–1.22 ABH · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): ABH att -0.39 / def -0.42 · ALF att -0.15 / def -0.16 · model ABH 1.2–1.8 ALF
Home field
+0.3 goals to ABH
Record
ABH 0-2-7 · ALF 1-4-5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Alexandre Mendy
goals 5
Alexandre Mendy
goalsleaders 5

Alimani Gory
goals 2
Alimani Gory
goalsleaders 2

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	ALF	ABH
Goal Difference	-9	-11
Total Goals	11	6
Assists	10	2
Goals Against	20	17

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Al Faisaly vs Abha prediction · Oct 27, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 59% model probability. The model projected Al Faisaly 1.8, Abha 1.2 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Abha 24%, Al Faisaly 51%, draw 25%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: Saudi Pro picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day