Saudi ProLive 26'Prince Abdullah Al-Faisal Stadium

Al Khaleej at Al Ahli

26'

Live26'Updates as plays come in

Latest action: KHA attacking

Al Khaleej

2-6-2

Form DWDDD · 9 PF · 13 PA

Live

Al Ahli

6-0-3

Form DWWLD · 23 PF · 12 PA

KHA 7%Draw 13%AHL 80%

Model: KHA 0.69–2.92 AHL · live-adjusted

DraftKingsLiveas of 1:27 PM CT · tap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

AHL win

84%

85% (no-vig)

Total

3.46

3.5

Gap: -0 pts of win %, -0.04 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 556 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.1883 vs old model 0.2351. Added Oct 2026: attack/defence goal ratings from ESPN results (goals only). The v1 column here is the league's home/draw/away base rates, not an older model. No free archive of closing lines for this league yet; the final projection still leans on the DraftKings line.

The model

How this number was built

KHA 0.69–2.92 AHL · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): AHL att +0.39 / def +0.33 · KHA att -0.24 / def -0.17 · model AHL 2.7–0.8 KHA
Home field
+0.3 goals to AHL
Record
AHL 6-0-3 · KHA 2-6-2
Market prior
Blended 66% toward AHL -295 / total 3.5
Live residual
75% of pregame scoring still on the clock

Full write-up of the model

Computer pick · Total

Under 3.5

54%

KHA 0.69–2.92 AHL · 0.1 goals over 3.5

Live stats

A. Asiri · KHA
Pass 5
Majed Kanabah · KHA
defensiveinterventions 3
M. Al Haidari · KHA
SV 1
V. Atangana · AHL
totalshots 1
R. Ibañez · AHL
Pass 18

Line score

	1H	T
KHA	0	0
AHL	1	1

How the goals went in

GOAL1H 11'
Ivan Toney (Al Ahli) Goal at 11'

Game leaders

Ahmad Asiri
Pass 5
Majed Kanabah
defensiveinterventions 3
Marwan Al Haidari
SV 1

Valentin Atangana
totalshots 1
Roger Ibañez
Pass 18

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	KHA	AHL
Fouls	6	4
Yellow Cards	2	0
Red Cards	0	0
Offsides	0	0
Corner Kicks	0	0
Saves	1	0
Possession	24.9	75.1
SHOTS	0	3
ON GOAL	0	2
On Target %	0.0	0.7
Penalty Goals	0	0
Penalty Kicks Taken	0	0
Accurate Passes	23	114
Passes	42	127
Pass Completion %	0.5	0.9
Accurate Crosses	0	0
Crosses	0	0
Cross %	0.0	0.0
Long Balls	0	0
Accurate Long Balls	0	0
Long Balls %	0.0	0.0
Blocked Shots	0	1
Effective Tackles	3	0
Tackles	7	1
Tackle %	0.4	0.0
Interceptions	0	0
Effective Clearances	0	0
Clearances	5	0

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

A. Bondarenko anytime goal
Anytime goal · AHL
+225
31%
O. Mascarell anytime goal
Anytime goal · KHA
+1000
9%
M. Demiral anytime goal
Anytime goal · AHL
+1200
8%

Al Khaleej vs Al Ahli prediction · Oct 23, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 54% model probability. The model now projects Al Khaleej 0.7, Al Ahli 2.9. Live model win probability: Al Ahli 80%, Al Khaleej 7%, draw 13%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: Saudi Pro picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day