EredivisieFri 1:00 PM CTDe Adelaarshorst

Telstar at Go Ahead Eagles

Fri 1:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Under 3.5

54%

Now TEL 1.49–2.02 GAE · pick locked earlier at Under 3.5; model has since moved

Players

T. Owusu · TEL
Midfield
S. Tengstedt · GAE
Midfield

Telstar

1-3-5

Form DDLDL · 10 PF · 18 PA

1.49

Projected

Go Ahead Eagles

2-5-2

Form DDDDD · 20 PF · 21 PA

2.02

TEL 28%Draw 23%GAE 49%

Projected TEL 1.49–2.02 GAE · most likely 1–1

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

GAE win

62%

76% (no-vig)

Total

3.52

3.5

Gap: -14 pts of win %, +0.02 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 529 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.1983 vs old model 0.2269. Added Oct 2026: attack/defence goal ratings from ESPN results (goals only). The v1 column here is the league's home/draw/away base rates, not an older model. No free archive of closing lines for this league yet; the final projection still leans on the DraftKings line.

The model

How this number was built

TEL 1.49–2.02 GAE · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): GAE att +0.01 / def -0.13 · TEL att -0.17 / def -0.08 · model GAE 2.1–1.5 TEL
Home field
+0.3 goals to GAE
Record
GAE 2-5-2 · TEL 1-3-5
Market prior
Blended 66% toward GAE -170 / total 3.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Tyrone Owusu
goals 3
Tyrone Owusu
goalsleaders 3

Sören Tengstedt
goals 6
Sören Tengstedt
goalsleaders 6

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	TEL	GAE
Goal Difference	-8	-1
Total Goals	10	20
Assists	5	13
Goals Against	18	21

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

R. Margaret anytime goal
Anytime goal · GAE
+280
26%
A. Martha anytime goal
Anytime goal · TEL
+425
19%

Telstar vs Go Ahead Eagles prediction · Oct 23, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 54% model probability. The pick locked before the game; the model has since moved and now projects Telstar 1.5, Go Ahead Eagles 2.0. Model win probability: Go Ahead Eagles 49%, Telstar 28%, draw 23%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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