PortugalMon 1:45 PM CTEstádio de São Miguel

Benfica at Santa Clara

Mon 1:45 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Under 2.5

54%

Now SLB 1.93–0.58 CDSC · pick locked earlier at Under 2.5; model has since moved

Players

V. Pavlidis · SLB
Forward
G. Paciência · CDSC
Forward

Data-Driven Pick · V. Pavlidis anytime goal

+100

Benfica

6-1-1

Form DWWLW · 24 PF · 7 PA

1.93

Projected

Santa Clara

5-3-0

Form DWDWW · 12 PF · 4 PA

0.58

SLB 69%Draw 22%CDSC 9%

Projected SLB 1.93–0.58 CDSC · most likely 2–0

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

CDSC win

26%

14% (no-vig)

Total

2.53

2.5

Gap: +12 pts of win %, +0.03 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 518 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.1838 vs old model 0.2321. Added Oct 2026: attack/defence goal ratings from ESPN results (goals only). The v1 column here is the league's home/draw/away base rates, not an older model. No free archive of closing lines for this league yet; the final projection still leans on the DraftKings line.

The model

How this number was built

SLB 1.93–0.58 CDSC · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): CDSC att -0.29 / def +0.19 · SLB att +0.54 / def +0.42 · model CDSC 0.7–1.8 SLB
Home field
+0.3 goals to CDSC
Record
CDSC 5-3-0 · SLB 6-1-1
Market prior
Blended 66% toward SLB -275 / total 2.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Vangelis Pavlidis
goals 8
Vangelis Pavlidis
goalsleaders 8

Gonçalo Paciência
goals 5
Gonçalo Paciência
goalsleaders 5

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	SLB	CDSC
Goal Difference	17	8
Total Goals	24	12
Assists	14	8
Goals Against	7	4

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

Data-Driven PickComputer pick

V. Pavlidis anytime goal

-10551%

Anytime goal · DraftKings

G. Prestianni anytime goal
Anytime goal · SLB
+140
42%
G. Sudakov anytime goal
Anytime goal · SLB
+230
30%
D. Lukébakio anytime goal
Anytime goal · SLB
+250
29%
C. Echeverri anytime goal
Anytime goal · SLB
+250
29%
R. Silva anytime goal
Anytime goal · SLB
+320
24%
F. Aursnes anytime goal
Anytime goal · SLB
+320
24%
A. Schjelderup anytime goal
Anytime goal · SLB
+320
24%
S. El Karouani anytime goal
Anytime goal · SLB
+500
17%
A. Bah anytime goal
Anytime goal · SLB
+1100
8%
T. Araújo anytime goal
Anytime goal · SLB
+1100
8%
A. Circati anytime goal
Anytime goal · SLB
+1100
8%

Benfica vs Santa Clara prediction · Oct 26, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 2.5, with a 54% model probability. The model projects Benfica 1.9, Santa Clara 0.6. Model win probability: Santa Clara 9%, Benfica 69%, draw 22%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: Portugal picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day