NCAAFThu 6:30 PM CTBridgeforth Stadium

Troy Trojans at James Madison Dukes

TV · ESPN2

Thu 6:30 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

JMU -21

54%

At lock TROY 14.92–37.63 JMU · JMU by 22.7 pts vs JMU -21 · 54% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

G. Crowder · TROY
QB
G. Griffin · TROY
RB
T. Keyes · TROY
WR
C. Coleman · JMU
QB
G. Pettaway · JMU
RB
C. Scott · JMU
WR

Troy Trojans

3-4 · L2

160 PF · 174 PA

14.92

Projected

James Madison Dukes

7-1 · L1 · computer pick

331 PF · 146 PA

37.63

TROY 10%JMU 90%

At lock: projected TROY 14.92–37.63 JMU

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

JMU -21.5

JMU -21.0

Total

52.6

52.5

Gap: +0.5 margin, +0.1 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: TROY vs JMU

The model

How this number was built

TROY 14.92–37.63 JMU · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
JMU +5.3 vs TROY -11.2 · pred margin +21.2
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +13.1 vs -1.6 · model JMU 39.4–13.2 TROY
Home field
+3.0 pts to JMU
Record
JMU 7-1 · TROY 3-4
Market prior
Blended 67% toward JMU -21 / total 52.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Goose Crowder
Pass 102/183, 1162 YDS, 9 TD, 5 INT
Gavin Griffin
Rush 87 CAR, 398 YDS, 2 TD
TK Keyes
Rec 13 REC, 282 YDS, 3 TD

Camden Coleman
Pass 131/212, 1567 YDS, 14 TD, 2 INT
George Pettaway
Rush 124 CAR, 824 YDS, 8 TD
Corey Scott
Rec 24 REC, 371 YDS, 4 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	TROY	JMU
Points Per Game	22.9	41.4
Total Yards	373.7	456.3
Yards Passing	176.4	249.0
Yards Rushing	197.3	207.3
Points Allowed Per Game	24.9	18.3
Yards Allowed	334.9	352.6
Pass Yards Allowed	205.4	242.5
Rush Yards Allowed	129.4	110.1

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Troy vs James Madison prediction · Oct 29, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is JMU -21, with a 54% model probability. The model projected Troy 14.9, James Madison 37.6 when the pick locked. Model win probability: James Madison 90%, Troy 10%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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