NCAAFSat 3:00 PM CTProvost Umphrey Stadium

Houston Christian Huskies at Lamar Cardinals

TV · ESPN+

Sat 3:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 43.5

57%

At lock HCU 18.41–28.37 LAM · 3.3 pts over 43.5

Players

C. Stewart · HCU
QB
C. Dozier · HCU
Defenses
J. Hall II · HCU
WR
A. McCown · LAM
QB
J. Uga · LAM
Defenses
B. Thomas · LAM
WR

Houston Christian Huskies

4-3

18.41

Projected

Lamar Cardinals

5-2

28.37

HCU 27%LAM 73%

At lock: projected HCU 18.41–28.37 LAM

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

LAM -6.8

LAM -11.5

Total

53.4

43.5

Gap: -4.7 margin, +9.9 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: HCU vs LAM

The model

How this number was built

HCU 18.41–28.37 LAM · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -3.6 vs -5.9 · model LAM 30.1–23.3 HCU
Home field
+3.0 pts to LAM
Record
LAM 5-2 · HCU 4-3
Market prior
Blended 67% toward LAM -11.5 / total 43.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Cutter Stewart
Pass 78/146, 972 YDS, 10 TD, 2 INT
Champ Dozier
Rush 68 CAR, 344 YDS, 1 TD
Jamaal Hall II
Rec 21 REC, 399 YDS, 2 TD

Aiden McCown
Pass 106/178, 1292 YDS, 12 TD, 4 INT
Jojo Uga
Rush 73 CAR, 447 YDS, 5 TD
Blake Thomas
Rec 30 REC, 396 YDS, 5 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	HCU	LAM
Points Per Game	31.6	30.1
Total Yards	341.0	361.0
Yards Passing	186.3	198.1
Yards Rushing	154.7	162.9
Points Allowed Per Game	25.4	24.3
Yards Allowed	404.6	346.1
Pass Yards Allowed	195.1	203.7
Rush Yards Allowed	209.4	142.4

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Hou Christian vs Lamar prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 43.5, with a 57% model probability. The model projected Hou Christian 18.4, Lamar 28.4 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Lamar 73%, Hou Christian 27%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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