NCAAFSat 4:00 PM CTGayle and Tom Benson Stadium

McNeese Cowboys at Incarnate Word Cardinals

TV · ESPN+

Sat 4:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

MCN +14

55%

At lock MCN 21.80–33.89 UIW · MCN by 1.9 pts vs MCN +14

Players

D. Lippold · MCN
QB
O. Wiggins · MCN
Defenses
E. Edwards · MCN
WR
E. Brown · UIW
QB
J. Hibbler · UIW
Defenses
I. Champagne · UIW
WR

McNeese Cowboys

3-4 · computer pick

21.80

Projected

Incarnate Word Cardinals

3-4

33.89

MCN 23%UIW 77%

At lock: projected MCN 21.80–33.89 UIW

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

UIW -4.0

UIW -14.0

Total

56.5

55.5

Gap: -10.0 margin, +1.0 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: MCN vs UIW

The model

How this number was built

MCN 21.80–33.89 UIW · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -4.2 vs -4.6 · model UIW 30.2–26.3 MCN
Home field
+3.0 pts to UIW
Record
UIW 3-4 · MCN 3-4
Market prior
Blended 81% toward UIW -14 / total 55.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Devin Lippold
Pass 64/112, 744 YDS, 8 TD, 3 INT
Omiri Wiggins
Rush 82 CAR, 446 YDS, 4 TD
Elisha Edwards
Rec 23 REC, 361 YDS, 3 TD

Emmett Brown
Pass 166/271, 1921 YDS, 10 TD, 8 INT
Jayden Hibbler
Rush 56 CAR, 300 YDS, 2 TD
Isaiah Champagne
Rec 40 REC, 435 YDS, 2 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	MCN	UIW
Points Per Game	25.4	35.1
Total Yards	383.7	447.1
Yards Passing	217.4	293.1
Yards Rushing	166.3	154.0
Points Allowed Per Game	28.6	31.4
Yards Allowed	456.1	382.9
Pass Yards Allowed	262.3	228.0
Rush Yards Allowed	193.9	154.9

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

McNeese vs Incarnate Word prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is MCN +14, with a 55% model probability. The model projected McNeese 21.8, Incarnate Word 33.9 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Incarnate Word 77%, McNeese 23%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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