NCAAFSat 2:00 PM CTTurpin Stadium

Nicholls Colonels at Northwestern State Demons

TV · ESPN+

Sat 2:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

NWST +9.5

56%

At lock NICH 30.65–23.71 NWST · NWST by 2.6 pts vs NWST +9.5

Players

E. Rodrigue · NICH
QB
T. Hoffman · NICH
Defenses
J. Smith · NICH
WR
Z. Wilcke · NWST
QB
Z. Davis · NWST
Defenses

Nicholls Colonels

2-5

30.65

Projected

Northwestern State Demons

0-7 · computer pick

23.71

NICH 67%NWST 33%

At lock: projected NICH 30.65–23.71 NWST

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

NWST -3.9

NICH -9.5

Total

58.0

53.5

Gap: +13.4 margin, +4.5 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: NICH vs NWST

The model

How this number was built

NICH 30.65–23.71 NWST · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -8.8 vs -9.2 · model NWST 31.0–27.0 NICH
Home field
+3.0 pts to NWST
Record
NWST 0-7 · NICH 2-5
Market prior
Blended 81% toward NICH -9.5 / total 53.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Ean Rodrigue
Pass 84/156, 861 YDS, 9 TD, 5 INT
Tamaj Hoffman
Rush 68 CAR, 302 YDS, 2 TD
Jordan Smith
Rec 28 REC, 366 YDS, 3 TD

Zach Wilcke
Pass 98/177, 1050 YDS, 9 TD, 3 INT
Zay Davis
Rush 65 CAR, 269 YDS, 2 TD
Zay Davis
Rec 22 REC, 289 YDS, 2 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	NICH	NWST
Points Per Game	14.0	19.0
Total Yards	288.1	321.0
Yards Passing	162.1	210.7
Yards Rushing	126.0	110.3
Points Allowed Per Game	41.3	46.7
Yards Allowed	443.7	439.7
Pass Yards Allowed	240.4	220.6
Rush Yards Allowed	203.3	219.1

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Nicholls vs N'Western St prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is NWST +9.5, with a 56% model probability. The model projected Nicholls 30.6, N'Western St 23.7 when the pick locked. Model win probability: N'Western St 33%, Nicholls 67%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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