NCAAFSat 2:00 PM CTShell Energy Stadium

Southern Jaguars at Texas Southern Tigers

Sat 2:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 56.5

50%

At lock SOU 27.63–29.05 TXSO · 0.2 pts over 56.5

Players

C. Johnson · SOU
QB
T. Holly · SOU
Defenses
D. Smith · SOU
WR
C. McCoy · TXSO
QB
A. Renfro Jr. · TXSO
Defenses
R. Richardson · TXSO
WR

Southern Jaguars

3-4

27.63

Projected

Texas Southern Tigers

1-5

29.05

SOU 47%TXSO 53%

At lock: projected SOU 27.63–29.05 TXSO

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

TXSO -1.2

TXSO -1.5

Total

57.0

56.5

Gap: -0.3 margin, +0.5 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: SOU vs TXSO

The model

How this number was built

SOU 27.63–29.05 TXSO · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -7.1 vs -5.8 · model TXSO 29.1–27.9 SOU
Home field
+3.0 pts to TXSO
Record
TXSO 1-5 · SOU 3-4
Market prior
Blended 68% toward TXSO -1.5 / total 56.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Christian Johnson
Pass 78/140, 935 YDS, 8 TD, 1 INT
Trey Holly
Rush 139 CAR, 673 YDS, 6 TD
Daejawn Smith
Rec 21 REC, 262 YDS, 2 TD

Cam'Ron McCoy
Pass 81/143, 1107 YDS, 7 TD, 3 INT
Athean Renfro Jr.
Rush 99 CAR, 531 YDS, 5 TD
Roriyon Richardson
Rec 21 REC, 258 YDS, 1 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	SOU	TXSO
Points Per Game	23.1	25.0
Total Yards	341.6	354.2
Yards Passing	169.6	190.3
Yards Rushing	172.0	163.8
Points Allowed Per Game	34.7	46.7
Yards Allowed	405.6	436.3
Pass Yards Allowed	187.6	257.3
Rush Yards Allowed	218.0	179.0

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Southern vs Texas Southern prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 56.5, with a 50% model probability. The model projected Southern 27.6, Texas Southern 29.1 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Texas Southern 53%, Southern 47%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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