NCAAFSat 12:00 PM CTDaytona Stadium

Jackson State Tigers at Bethune-Cookman Wildcats

Sat 12:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 50.5

53%

At lock JKST 29.36–22.77 BCU · 1.6 pts over 50.5

Players

J. Lockhart · JKST
QB
N. Blount IV · JKST
Defenses
N. Rembert · JKST
WR
T. Jefferson · BCU
QB
R. Brown · BCU
Defenses
J. Evans · BCU
WR

Jackson State Tigers

6-1

29.36

Projected

Bethune-Cookman Wildcats

4-3

22.77

JKST 66%BCU 34%

At lock: projected JKST 29.36–22.77 BCU

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

JKST -5.8

JKST -7.0

Total

55.4

50.5

Gap: +1.2 margin, +4.9 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: JKST vs BCU

The model

How this number was built

JKST 29.36–22.77 BCU · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -6.5 vs -0.7 · model BCU 24.8–30.6 JKST
Home field
+3.0 pts to BCU
Record
BCU 4-3 · JKST 6-1
Market prior
Blended 67% toward JKST -7 / total 50.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Jared Lockhart
Pass 98/162, 1493 YDS, 14 TD, 1 INT
Nate Blount IV
Rush 88 CAR, 562 YDS, 5 TD
Nate Rembert
Rec 28 REC, 545 YDS, 2 TD

Tyler Jefferson
Pass 46/93, 496 YDS, 3 TD, 3 INT
Rashon Brown
Rush 124 CAR, 650 YDS, 9 TD
Josh Evans
Rec 12 REC, 239 YDS, 3 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	JKST	BCU
Points Per Game	37.7	28.4
Total Yards	450.9	331.9
Yards Passing	235.1	103.4
Yards Rushing	215.7	228.4
Points Allowed Per Game	21.7	29.1
Yards Allowed	317.6	364.0
Pass Yards Allowed	203.9	157.1
Rush Yards Allowed	113.7	206.9

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Jackson St vs Bethune prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 50.5, with a 53% model probability. The model projected Jackson St 29.4, Bethune 22.8 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Bethune 34%, Jackson St 66%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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