NCAAFSat 2:00 PM CTBragg Memorial Stadium

Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions at Florida A&M Rattlers

Sat 2:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 55.5

52%

At lock UAPB 26.88–29.48 FAMU · 0.9 pts over 55.5

Players

G. Davis · UAPB
QB
Z. Webber · UAPB
Defenses
D. Whitlock · UAPB
WR
A. Parker · FAMU
QB
J. Hailey · FAMU
Defenses
A. Burris · FAMU
WR

Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions

3-3

26.88

Projected

Florida A&M Rattlers

2-5

29.48

UAPB 44%FAMU 56%

At lock: projected UAPB 26.88–29.48 FAMU

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

FAMU -1.8

FAMU -3.0

Total

58.2

55.5

Gap: -1.2 margin, +2.7 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: UAPB vs FAMU

The model

How this number was built

UAPB 26.88–29.48 FAMU · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -5.2 vs -4.2 · model FAMU 30.0–28.2 UAPB
Home field
+3.0 pts to FAMU
Record
FAMU 2-5 · UAPB 3-3
Market prior
Blended 68% toward FAMU -3 / total 55.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Garrison Davis
Pass 58/96, 709 YDS, 11 TD, 3 INT
Za'Marion Webber
Rush 45 CAR, 340 YDS, 3 TD
Demetric Whitlock
Rec 28 REC, 448 YDS, 5 TD

Armond Parker
Pass 57/106, 925 YDS, 8 TD, 8 INT
Jamal Hailey
Rush 68 CAR, 254 YDS, 1 TD
Armand Burris
Rec 9 REC, 249 YDS, 2 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	UAPB	FAMU
Points Per Game	32.8	18.9
Total Yards	395.0	266.1
Yards Passing	186.8	194.4
Yards Rushing	208.2	71.7
Points Allowed Per Game	31.3	34.0
Yards Allowed	453.0	446.0
Pass Yards Allowed	317.7	219.9
Rush Yards Allowed	135.3	226.1

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

AR-Pine Bluff vs Florida A&M prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 55.5, with a 52% model probability. The model projected AR-Pine Bluff 26.9, Florida A&M 29.5 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Florida A&M 56%, AR-Pine Bluff 44%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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