NCAAFSat 1:00 PM CTPaladin Stadium

Samford Bulldogs at Furman Paladins

TV · ESPN+

Sat 1:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 45.5

56%

At lock SAM 20.27–27.82 FUR · 2.6 pts over 45.5

Players

G. Johnson · SAM
QB
K. Cherry · SAM
Defenses
M. Henderson · SAM
WR
C. Ackerley · FUR
QB
B. Croasdale · FUR
Defenses
L. Shields · FUR
WR

Samford Bulldogs

1-6

20.27

Projected

Furman Paladins

2-5

27.82

SAM 32%FUR 68%

At lock: projected SAM 20.27–27.82 FUR

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

FUR -3.6

FUR -9.5

Total

53.3

45.5

Gap: -5.9 margin, +7.8 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: SAM vs FUR

The model

How this number was built

SAM 20.27–27.82 FUR · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -3.6 vs -3.8 · model FUR 28.5–24.9 SAM
Home field
+3.0 pts to FUR
Record
FUR 2-5 · SAM 1-6
Market prior
Blended 67% toward FUR -9.5 / total 45.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Gabarri Johnson
Pass 119/209, 1159 YDS, 7 TD, 7 INT
Ken Cherry
Rush 43 CAR, 247 YDS
Marquise Henderson
Rec 23 REC, 403 YDS, 3 TD

Connor Ackerley
Pass 79/135, 794 YDS, 3 TD
Ben Croasdale
Rush 66 CAR, 305 YDS, 3 TD
Luke Shields
Rec 32 REC, 391 YDS, 2 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	SAM	FUR
Points Per Game	18.6	16.4
Total Yards	290.6	312.4
Yards Passing	211.9	181.6
Yards Rushing	78.7	130.9
Points Allowed Per Game	25.6	22.4
Yards Allowed	341.0	363.3
Pass Yards Allowed	141.0	222.1
Rush Yards Allowed	200.0	141.1

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Samford vs Furman prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 45.5, with a 56% model probability. The model projected Samford 20.3, Furman 27.8 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Furman 68%, Samford 32%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NCAAF picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day