NCAAFSat 12:30 PM CTFoster Stadium

East Tennessee State Buccaneers at VMI Keydets

TV · ESPN+

Sat 12:30 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

VMI +30.5

64%

At lock ETSU 40.13–15.46 VMI · VMI by 5.8 pts vs VMI +30.5

Players

M. Mims · ETSU
QB
T. Peyton · ETSU
Defenses
S. Harrison · ETSU
WR
I. Reynolds · VMI
QB
L. Boehling · VMI
Defenses
H. Hardnett · VMI
WR

East Tennessee State Buccaneers

5-2

40.13

Projected

VMI Keydets

0-7 · computer pick

15.46

ETSU 94%VMI 6%

At lock: projected ETSU 40.13–15.46 VMI

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

VMI -0.1

ETSU -30.5

Total

56.0

55.5

Gap: +30.6 margin, +0.5 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: ETSU vs VMI

The model

How this number was built

ETSU 40.13–15.46 VMI · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -5.8 vs -3.8 · model VMI 28.0–27.9 ETSU
Home field
+3.0 pts to VMI
Record
VMI 0-7 · ETSU 5-2
Market prior
Blended 81% toward ETSU -30.5 / total 55.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Mason Mims
Pass 133/190, 1551 YDS, 10 TD, 3 INT
TJ Peyton
Rush 96 CAR, 616 YDS, 6 TD
Suderian Harrison
Rec 25 REC, 374 YDS, 1 TD

Ian Reynolds
Pass 31/78, 453 YDS, 1 TD, 5 INT
Leo Boehling
Rush 102 CAR, 327 YDS, 1 TD
Halim Hardnett
Rec 7 REC, 134 YDS, 1 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	ETSU	VMI
Points Per Game	32.7	9.1
Total Yards	406.0	198.0
Yards Passing	236.4	75.1
Yards Rushing	169.6	122.9
Points Allowed Per Game	25.0	41.7
Yards Allowed	354.7	503.7
Pass Yards Allowed	208.6	288.4
Rush Yards Allowed	146.1	215.3

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

ETSU vs VMI prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is VMI +30.5, with a 64% model probability. The model projected ETSU 40.1, VMI 15.5 when the pick locked. Model win probability: VMI 6%, ETSU 94%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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