NCAAFSat 12:00 PM CTBrown Field

Presbyterian Blue Hose at Valparaiso Beacons

TV · ESPN+

Sat 12:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Under 58.5

53%

At lock PRES 26.98–29.96 VAL · 1.6 pts under 58.5

Players

L. Sharpe · PRES
QB
C. Johnson · PRES
WR
R. Keefe · VAL
QB
C. Benning Iii · VAL
Defenses
C. Gundy · VAL
WR

Presbyterian Blue Hose

4-3

26.98

Projected

Valparaiso Beacons

3-4

29.96

PRES 41%VAL 59%

At lock: projected PRES 26.98–29.96 VAL

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

VAL -2.9

VAL -4.0

Total

53.8

58.5

Gap: -1.1 margin, -4.7 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: PRES vs VAL

The model

How this number was built

PRES 26.98–29.96 VAL · Medium confidence

Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Attack / defense
VAL -0.1 off · PRES +0.1 off, shrunk 58%
Home field
+3.0 pts to VAL
Record
VAL 3-4 · PRES 4-3
Market prior
Blended 67% toward VAL -4 / total 58.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Landon Sharpe
Pass 130/216, 1661 YDS, 12 TD, 5 INT
Landon Sharpe
Rush 96 CAR, 417 YDS, 4 TD
Caleb Johnson
Rec 29 REC, 360 YDS, 3 TD

Rowan Keefe
Pass 117/192, 1238 YDS, 10 TD, 3 INT
Cedric Benning Iii
Rush 61 CAR, 221 YDS, 3 TD
Chris Gundy
Rec 26 REC, 317 YDS, 1 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	PRES	VAL
Points Per Game	30.1	27.4
Total Yards	422.9	300.6
Yards Passing	250.7	196.4
Yards Rushing	172.1	104.1
Points Allowed Per Game	40.6	23.7
Yards Allowed	475.0	359.6
Pass Yards Allowed	261.3	172.1
Rush Yards Allowed	213.7	187.4

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Presbyterian vs Valparaiso prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 58.5, with a 53% model probability. The model projected Presbyterian 27.0, Valparaiso 30.0 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Valparaiso 59%, Presbyterian 41%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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