NCAAFSat 1:00 PM CTPhil Simms Stadium

Stetson Hatters at Morehead State Eagles

TV · ESPN+

Sat 1:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Under 61.5

57%

At lock STET 28.04–30.03 MORE · 3.4 pts under 61.5

Players

T. Von Grote · STET
QB
T. Flowers · STET
Defenses
W. Rogers · STET
WR
D. Parsons · MORE
QB
B. Patterson · MORE
QB
A. Ice · MORE
WR

Stetson Hatters

1-6

28.04

Projected

Morehead State Eagles

1-6

30.03

STET 45%MORE 55%

At lock: projected STET 28.04–30.03 MORE

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

MORE -3.0

MORE -1.5

Total

51.1

61.5

Gap: +1.5 margin, -10.4 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: STET vs MORE

The model

How this number was built

STET 28.04–30.03 MORE · Medium confidence

Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Attack / defense
MORE -0.7 off · STET -0.7 off, shrunk 58%
Home field
+3.0 pts to MORE
Record
MORE 1-6 · STET 1-6
Market prior
Blended 67% toward MORE -1.5 / total 61.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Thomas Von Grote
Pass 156/249, 1740 YDS, 14 TD, 4 INT
Troy Flowers
Rush 70 CAR, 291 YDS, 1 TD
Wyatt Rogers
Rec 45 REC, 540 YDS, 2 TD

David Parsons
Pass 60/119, 982 YDS, 10 TD, 7 INT
Bryce Patterson
Rush 32 CAR, 138 YDS, 3 TD
Anthony Ice
Rec 36 REC, 559 YDS, 5 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	STET	MORE
Points Per Game	22.1	26.6
Total Yards	378.9	354.7
Yards Passing	272.3	254.6
Yards Rushing	106.6	100.1
Points Allowed Per Game	43.9	45.0
Yards Allowed	443.7	473.4
Pass Yards Allowed	235.6	261.1
Rush Yards Allowed	208.1	212.3

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Stetson vs Morehead St prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 61.5, with a 57% model probability. The model projected Stetson 28.0, Morehead St 30.0 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Morehead St 55%, Stetson 45%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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