NCAAFSat 11:00 AM CTTenney Stadium at Leonidoff Field

St. Thomas Tommies at Marist Red Foxes

TV · ESPN+

Sat 11:00 AM CT

Computer pick · Spread

MRST +4

56%

At lock STMN 27.16–25.45 MRST · MRST by 2.3 pts vs MRST +4

Players

N. Peipert · STMN
QB
G. Abel · STMN
Defenses
P. McCrary · STMN
WR
S. Mannino · MRST
QB
I. Simmons · MRST
Defenses
Z. Garmont · MRST
WR

St. Thomas Tommies

5-2

27.16

Projected

Marist Red Foxes

4-3 · computer pick

25.45

STMN 54%MRST 46%

At lock: projected STMN 27.16–25.45 MRST

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

MRST -2.9

STMN -4.0

Total

54.9

51.5

Gap: +6.9 margin, +3.4 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: STMN vs MRST

The model

How this number was built

STMN 27.16–25.45 MRST · Medium confidence

Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Attack / defense
MRST +0.1 off · STMN +0.4 off, shrunk 58%
Home field
+3.0 pts to MRST
Record
MRST 4-3 · STMN 5-2
Market prior
Blended 67% toward STMN -4 / total 51.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Nick Peipert
Pass 68/111, 1146 YDS, 11 TD, 5 INT
Gabriel Abel
Rush 72 CAR, 490 YDS, 7 TD
Pierce McCrary
Rec 31 REC, 499 YDS, 3 TD

Sonny Mannino
Pass 119/197, 1508 YDS, 9 TD, 4 INT
Isaiah Simmons
Rush 82 CAR, 387 YDS, 2 TD
Zach Garmont
Rec 25 REC, 399 YDS, 3 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	STMN	MRST
Points Per Game	37.1	26.0
Total Yards	444.3	357.0
Yards Passing	246.1	218.9
Yards Rushing	198.1	138.1
Points Allowed Per Game	29.1	19.6
Yards Allowed	420.7	335.3
Pass Yards Allowed	258.6	230.4
Rush Yards Allowed	162.1	104.9

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

St Thomas vs Marist prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is MRST +4, with a 56% model probability. The model projected St Thomas 27.2, Marist 25.4 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Marist 46%, St Thomas 54%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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