NCAAFSat 2:00 PM CTO'Brien Field

Southeast Missouri State Redhawks at Eastern Illinois Panthers

TV · ESPN+

Sat 2:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

EIU +7

55%

At lock SEMO 28.47–23.54 EIU · EIU by 2.1 pts vs EIU +7

Players

B. Ragland · SEMO
QB
K. Spain · SEMO
Defenses
J. Anthony Jr. · SEMO
WR
C. LaCrue · EIU
QB
C. Kellom · EIU
Defenses
S. Gonzalez · EIU
WR

Southeast Missouri State Redhawks

4-3

28.47

Projected

Eastern Illinois Panthers

2-5 · computer pick

23.54

SEMO 62%EIU 38%

At lock: projected SEMO 28.47–23.54 EIU

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

SEMO -0.7

SEMO -7.0

Total

55.1

50.5

Gap: +6.3 margin, +4.6 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: SEMO vs EIU

The model

How this number was built

SEMO 28.47–23.54 EIU · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -4.7 vs -2.1 · model EIU 27.2–27.9 SEMO
Home field
+3.0 pts to EIU
Record
EIU 2-5 · SEMO 4-3
Market prior
Blended 67% toward SEMO -7 / total 50.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Braylen Ragland
Pass 129/207, 1466 YDS, 7 TD, 8 INT
Khyair Spain
Rush 116 CAR, 492 YDS, 4 TD
John Anthony Jr.
Rec 21 REC, 403 YDS, 5 TD

Cole LaCrue
Pass 76/133, 883 YDS, 7 TD, 1 INT
Charles Kellom
Rush 101 CAR, 499 YDS, 6 TD
Samuel Gonzalez
Rec 11 REC, 218 YDS

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	SEMO	EIU
Points Per Game	25.0	17.7
Total Yards	330.3	255.0
Yards Passing	209.4	132.7
Yards Rushing	120.9	122.3
Points Allowed Per Game	25.6	33.3
Yards Allowed	353.9	439.0
Pass Yards Allowed	209.0	249.4
Rush Yards Allowed	144.9	189.6

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

SE Missouri vs E Illinois prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is EIU +7, with a 55% model probability. The model projected SE Missouri 28.5, E Illinois 23.5 when the pick locked. Model win probability: E Illinois 38%, SE Missouri 62%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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