NCAAFSat 2:30 PM CTNissan Stadium

Charleston Southern Buccaneers at Tennessee State Tigers

TV · ESPN+

Sat 2:30 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

TNST +3

55%

At lock CHSO 22.58–21.51 TNST · TNST by 1.9 pts vs TNST +3

Players

L. Powell · CHSO
QB
H. Watters · CHSO
Defenses
M. Campfield · CHSO
WR
D. Lee · TNST
QB
B. Paul · TNST
Defenses
C. Bulluck · TNST
WR

Charleston Southern Buccaneers

3-4

22.58

Projected

Tennessee State Tigers

2-5 · computer pick

21.51

CHSO 53%TNST 47%

At lock: projected CHSO 22.58–21.51 TNST

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

TNST -7.1

CHSO -3.0

Total

50.8

42.5

Gap: +10.1 margin, +8.3 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: CHSO vs TNST

The model

How this number was built

CHSO 22.58–21.51 TNST · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -3.2 vs -5.7 · model TNST 29.0–21.9 CHSO
Home field
+3.0 pts to TNST
Record
TNST 2-5 · CHSO 3-4
Market prior
Blended 81% toward CHSO -3 / total 42.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Lek Powell
Pass 48/93, 552 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
Hakeem Watters
Rush 68 CAR, 415 YDS, 6 TD
Mekhi Campfield
Rec 16 REC, 207 YDS, 4 TD

Daylin Lee
Pass 130/243, 1614 YDS, 11 TD, 7 INT
Brenton Paul
Rush 66 CAR, 227 YDS, 2 TD
Cam Bulluck
Rec 38 REC, 562 YDS, 6 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	CHSO	TNST
Points Per Game	23.9	19.0
Total Yards	251.6	310.4
Yards Passing	131.0	243.0
Yards Rushing	120.6	67.4
Points Allowed Per Game	22.7	33.0
Yards Allowed	338.4	437.4
Pass Yards Allowed	196.6	252.6
Rush Yards Allowed	141.9	184.9

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Charleston So vs Tennessee St prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is TNST +3, with a 55% model probability. The model projected Charleston So 22.6, Tennessee St 21.5 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Tennessee St 47%, Charleston So 53%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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