NCAAFSat 2:00 PM CTRoy Kidd Stadium

West Florida Argonauts at Eastern Kentucky Colonels

TV · ESPN+

Sat 2:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 47.5

54%

At lock UWF 24.78–24.70 EKU · 2.0 pts over 47.5

Players

T. Davis · UWF
QB
M. Townsend · UWF
Defenses
T. Mansell · UWF
WR
J. Potts · EKU
QB
B. Hensley · EKU
Defenses
E. Caldwell · EKU
WR

West Florida Argonauts

4-2

24.78

Projected

Eastern Kentucky Colonels

2-5

24.70

UWF 50%EKU 50%

At lock: projected UWF 24.78–24.70 EKU

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

EKU -2.9

UWF -1.5

Total

53.6

47.5

Gap: +4.4 margin, +6.1 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: UWF vs EKU

The model

How this number was built

UWF 24.78–24.70 EKU · Medium confidence

Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Attack / defense
EKU -0.4 off · UWF +0.3 off, shrunk 58%
Home field
+3.0 pts to EKU
Record
EKU 2-5 · UWF 4-2
Market prior
Blended 68% toward UWF -1.5 / total 47.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Ty'ray Davis
Pass 55/95, 761 YDS, 8 TD, 1 INT
Markel Townsend
Rush 62 CAR, 382 YDS, 1 TD
Tyshon Mansell
Rec 11 REC, 216 YDS, 1 TD

Jordyn Potts
Pass 61/106, 645 YDS, 2 TD, 6 INT
Brady Hensley
Rush 96 CAR, 602 YDS, 5 TD
Elijah Caldwell
Rec 25 REC, 285 YDS, 1 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	UWF	EKU
Points Per Game	26.0	18.6
Total Yards	350.3	351.7
Yards Passing	178.0	166.4
Yards Rushing	172.3	185.3
Points Allowed Per Game	27.0	31.0
Yards Allowed	350.2	381.7
Pass Yards Allowed	170.0	216.4
Rush Yards Allowed	180.2	165.3

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

West Florida vs E Kentucky prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 47.5, with a 54% model probability. The model projected West Florida 24.8, E Kentucky 24.7 when the pick locked. Model win probability: E Kentucky 50%, West Florida 50%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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