NCAAFSat 2:00 PM CTBobcat Stadium (MT)

Weber State Wildcats at Montana State Bobcats

TV · ESPN+

Sat 2:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

WEB +25.5

58%

At lock WEB 20.07–42.47 MTST · WEB by 3.1 pts vs WEB +25.5

Players

N. Dahle · WEB
QB
S. Ferguson · WEB
Defenses
N. Kjar · WEB
WR
J. Lamson · MTST
QB
A. Jones · MTST
Defenses
C. Dahlke · MTST
WR

Weber State Wildcats

5-3 · computer pick

20.07

Projected

Montana State Bobcats

6-1

42.47

WEB 8%MTST 92%

At lock: projected WEB 20.07–42.47 MTST

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

MTST -9.2

MTST -25.5

Total

54.2

64.5

Gap: -16.3 margin, -10.3 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: WEB vs MTST

The model

How this number was built

WEB 20.07–42.47 MTST · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -0.8 vs -4.6 · model MTST 31.7–22.5 WEB
Home field
+3.0 pts to MTST
Record
MTST 6-1 · WEB 5-3
Market prior
Blended 81% toward MTST -25.5 / total 64.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Nate Dahle
Pass 119/238, 1591 YDS, 16 TD, 10 INT
Spencer Ferguson
Rush 72 CAR, 543 YDS, 7 TD
Noah Kjar
Rec 47 REC, 711 YDS, 10 TD

Justin Lamson
Pass 88/121, 1094 YDS, 8 TD, 1 INT
Adam Jones
Rush 81 CAR, 408 YDS, 8 TD
Carter Dahlke
Rec 28 REC, 483 YDS, 4 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	WEB	MTST
Points Per Game	36.3	39.7
Total Yards	434.9	437.3
Yards Passing	245.0	241.0
Yards Rushing	189.9	196.3
Points Allowed Per Game	34.1	18.6
Yards Allowed	455.0	351.6
Pass Yards Allowed	252.0	227.1
Rush Yards Allowed	203.0	124.4

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Weber St vs Montana St prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is WEB +25.5, with a 58% model probability. The model projected Weber St 20.1, Montana St 42.5 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Montana St 92%, Weber St 8%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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