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Portland State Vikings at Idaho State Bengals

TV · ESPN+

Sat 5:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Under 62.5

54%

At lock PRST 22.66–37.88 IDST · 2.0 pts under 62.5

Players

T. Smith · PRST
QB
D. Thompson · PRST
Defenses
T. Loville · PRST
WR
J. Cooke · IDST
QB
T. Mason · IDST
Defenses
C. James · IDST
WR

Portland State Vikings

2-5

22.66

Projected

Idaho State Bengals

4-3

37.88

PRST 17%IDST 83%

At lock: projected PRST 22.66–37.88 IDST

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

IDST -17.7

IDST -14.0

Total

56.6

62.5

Gap: +3.7 margin, -5.9 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: PRST vs IDST

The model

How this number was built

PRST 22.66–37.88 IDST · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +0.2 vs -9.0 · model IDST 37.1–19.4 PRST
Home field
+3.0 pts to IDST
Record
IDST 4-3 · PRST 2-5
Market prior
Blended 67% toward IDST -14 / total 62.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Tyrese Smith
Pass 52/85, 617 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
Delon Thompson
Rush 120 CAR, 616 YDS, 4 TD
Terence Loville
Rec 32 REC, 491 YDS, 2 TD

Jordan Cooke
Pass 127/209, 1687 YDS, 15 TD, 7 INT
Tytan Mason
Rush 52 CAR, 341 YDS, 2 TD
Chedon James
Rec 39 REC, 471 YDS, 4 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	PRST	IDST
Points Per Game	23.7	32.7
Total Yards	326.7	419.1
Yards Passing	198.9	286.3
Yards Rushing	127.9	132.9
Points Allowed Per Game	44.0	22.6
Yards Allowed	523.3	376.1
Pass Yards Allowed	319.9	175.3
Rush Yards Allowed	203.4	200.9

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Portland St vs Idaho St prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 62.5, with a 54% model probability. The model projected Portland St 22.7, Idaho St 37.9 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Idaho St 83%, Portland St 17%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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