NCAAFSat 4:00 PM CTKibbie Dome

Southern Utah Thunderbirds at Idaho Vandals

TV · ESPN+

Sat 4:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Under 62.5

54%

At lock SUU 28.72–31.77 IDHO · 2.0 pts under 62.5

Players

W. Burns · SUU
QB
F. Chalk · SUU
Defenses
M. Bails · SUU
WR
J. Wood · IDHO
QB
T. Harste · IDHO
WR

Southern Utah Thunderbirds

3-4

28.72

Projected

Idaho Vandals

2-5

31.77

SUU 43%IDHO 57%

At lock: projected SUU 28.72–31.77 IDHO

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

IDHO -2.1

IDHO -3.5

Total

56.4

62.5

Gap: -1.4 margin, -6.1 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: SUU vs IDHO

The model

How this number was built

SUU 28.72–31.77 IDHO · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -2.9 vs -2.2 · model IDHO 29.3–27.1 SUU
Home field
+3.0 pts to IDHO
Record
IDHO 2-5 · SUU 3-4
Market prior
Blended 67% toward IDHO -3.5 / total 62.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Will Burns
Pass 107/166, 1299 YDS, 10 TD, 6 INT
Floyd Chalk
Rush 156 CAR, 1035 YDS, 9 TD
Mark Bails
Rec 19 REC, 389 YDS, 2 TD

Joshua Wood
Pass 150/239, 2038 YDS, 12 TD, 5 INT
Joshua Wood
Rush 91 CAR, 348 YDS, 8 TD
Tony Harste
Rec 35 REC, 607 YDS, 5 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	SUU	IDHO
Points Per Game	32.3	29.7
Total Yards	455.1	411.3
Yards Passing	186.0	293.1
Yards Rushing	269.1	118.1
Points Allowed Per Game	33.4	39.3
Yards Allowed	480.6	456.9
Pass Yards Allowed	287.6	225.9
Rush Yards Allowed	193.0	231.0

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Southern Utah vs Idaho prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 62.5, with a 54% model probability. The model projected Southern Utah 28.7, Idaho 31.8 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Idaho 57%, Southern Utah 43%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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