NCAAFSat 6:00 PM CTBraly Stadium

Austin Peay Governors at North Alabama Lions

TV · ESPN+

Sat 6:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

UNA +11.5

56%

At lock APSU 29.52–20.29 UNA · UNA by 2.3 pts vs UNA +11.5

Players

C. Parson · APSU
QB
M. Sims · APSU
WR
D. Wade · UNA
QB
R. Taylor Jr. · UNA
Defenses
X. Johnson · UNA
WR

Austin Peay Governors

6-2

29.52

Projected

North Alabama Lions

4-3 · computer pick

20.29

APSU 72%UNA 28%

At lock: projected APSU 29.52–20.29 UNA

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

UNA -0.4

APSU -11.5

Total

51.1

49.5

Gap: +11.9 margin, +1.6 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: APSU vs UNA

The model

How this number was built

APSU 29.52–20.29 UNA · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -2.6 vs -0.8 · model UNA 25.8–25.4 APSU
Home field
+3.0 pts to UNA
Record
UNA 4-3 · APSU 6-2
Market prior
Blended 81% toward APSU -11.5 / total 49.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Chris Parson
Pass 109/171, 1766 YDS, 12 TD, 1 INT
Chris Parson
Rush 96 CAR, 339 YDS, 8 TD
Marvin Sims
Rec 33 REC, 571 YDS, 2 TD

Destin Wade
Pass 97/175, 1402 YDS, 6 TD, 2 INT
Roderick Taylor Jr.
Rush 54 CAR, 250 YDS, 2 TD
Xavier Johnson
Rec 35 REC, 679 YDS, 2 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	APSU	UNA
Points Per Game	34.8	24.3
Total Yards	395.5	335.1
Yards Passing	227.9	200.1
Yards Rushing	167.6	135.0
Points Allowed Per Game	18.4	22.6
Yards Allowed	337.9	345.6
Pass Yards Allowed	236.6	241.9
Rush Yards Allowed	101.3	103.7

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Austin Peay vs North Alabama prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is UNA +11.5, with a 56% model probability. The model projected Austin Peay 29.5, North Alabama 20.3 when the pick locked. Model win probability: North Alabama 28%, Austin Peay 72%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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