NCAAFSat 1:00 PM CTRobins Stadium

Colgate Raiders at Richmond Spiders

TV · ESPN+

Sat 1:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 41.5

59%

At lock COLG 22.32–23.40 RICH · 4.2 pts over 41.5

Players

J. Stearney · COLG
QB
D. Shaban · COLG
Defenses
M. Fogler · COLG
WR
A. Snelsire · RICH
QB
A. Foster-Powell · RICH
Defenses
B. Allen · RICH
WR

Colgate Raiders

4-3

22.32

Projected

Richmond Spiders

5-2

23.40

COLG 47%RICH 53%

At lock: projected COLG 22.32–23.40 RICH

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

COLG -2.8

RICH -3.0

Total

54.3

41.5

Gap: -5.8 margin, +12.8 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: COLG vs RICH

The model

How this number was built

COLG 22.32–23.40 RICH · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -5.6 vs -1.7 · model RICH 25.7–28.5 COLG
Home field
+3.0 pts to RICH
Record
RICH 5-2 · COLG 4-3
Market prior
Blended 67% toward RICH -3 / total 41.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Jake Stearney
Pass 95/158, 1077 YDS, 9 TD, 7 INT
Danny Shaban
Rush 96 CAR, 529 YDS, 4 TD
Matt Fogler
Rec 42 REC, 663 YDS, 6 TD

Ashten Snelsire
Pass 140/252, 1365 YDS, 12 TD, 7 INT
Aziz Foster-Powell
Rush 102 CAR, 534 YDS, 6 TD
Bryce Allen
Rec 29 REC, 361 YDS, 4 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	COLG	RICH
Points Per Game	21.6	22.0
Total Yards	336.1	326.4
Yards Passing	175.3	195.0
Yards Rushing	160.9	131.4
Points Allowed Per Game	16.0	27.0
Yards Allowed	300.7	328.1
Pass Yards Allowed	190.0	167.7
Rush Yards Allowed	110.7	160.4

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Colgate vs Richmond prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 41.5, with a 59% model probability. The model projected Colgate 22.3, Richmond 23.4 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Richmond 53%, Colgate 47%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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