NCAAFSat 12:00 PM CTFitton Field

Bucknell Bison at Holy Cross Crusaders

TV · ESPN+

Sat 12:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 47.5

54%

At lock BUCK 20.39–29.17 HC · 2.1 pts over 47.5

Players

C. Dietrich · BUCK
QB
M. Cadden · BUCK
Defenses
S. Milligan · BUCK
WR
D. Lynch · HC
QB
J. Williams · HC
Defenses
T. Curran · HC
WR

Bucknell Bison

1-6

20.39

Projected

Holy Cross Crusaders

2-5

29.17

BUCK 29%HC 71%

At lock: projected BUCK 20.39–29.17 HC

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

HC -6.3

HC -10.0

Total

53.7

47.5

Gap: -3.7 margin, +6.2 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: BUCK vs HC

The model

How this number was built

BUCK 20.39–29.17 HC · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -2.4 vs -4.4 · model HC 30.0–23.7 BUCK
Home field
+3.0 pts to HC
Record
HC 2-5 · BUCK 1-6
Market prior
Blended 67% toward HC -10 / total 47.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Christopher Dietrich
Pass 82/130, 789 YDS, 5 TD, 2 INT
Michael Cadden
Rush 71 CAR, 280 YDS, 2 TD
Sam Milligan
Rec 29 REC, 300 YDS, 3 TD

David Lynch
Pass 122/223, 1398 YDS, 10 TD, 9 INT
Joseph Williams
Rush 98 CAR, 500 YDS, 3 TD
Ty Curran
Rec 29 REC, 314 YDS, 4 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	BUCK	HC
Points Per Game	10.3	20.1
Total Yards	228.1	323.0
Yards Passing	160.3	208.3
Yards Rushing	67.9	114.7
Points Allowed Per Game	25.0	32.4
Yards Allowed	404.4	411.3
Pass Yards Allowed	238.1	274.3
Rush Yards Allowed	166.3	137.0

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Bucknell vs Holy Cross prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 47.5, with a 54% model probability. The model projected Bucknell 20.4, Holy Cross 29.2 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Holy Cross 71%, Bucknell 29%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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