NCAAFSat 12:30 PM CTOliver C. Dawson Stadium

Norfolk State Spartans at South Carolina State Bulldogs

TV · ESPN+

Sat 12:30 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

NORF +14.5

55%

At lock NORF 21.54–33.80 SCST · NORF by 2.2 pts vs NORF +14.5

Players

D. Golmond · NORF
QB
J. Daniels · NORF
Defenses
E. Mitchell · NORF
WR
R. Robinson · SCST
QB
M. Pickett-Hicks · SCST
Defenses
D. Maultsby · SCST
WR

Norfolk State Spartans

4-3 · computer pick

21.54

Projected

South Carolina State Bulldogs

5-2

33.80

NORF 22%SCST 78%

At lock: projected NORF 21.54–33.80 SCST

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

SCST -7.7

SCST -14.5

Total

55.0

55.5

Gap: -6.8 margin, -0.5 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: NORF vs SCST

The model

How this number was built

NORF 21.54–33.80 SCST · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -2.7 vs -5.6 · model SCST 31.4–23.7 NORF
Home field
+3.0 pts to SCST
Record
SCST 5-2 · NORF 4-3
Market prior
Blended 67% toward SCST -14.5 / total 55.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Da'Jean Golmond
Pass 61/96, 774 YDS, 6 TD, 1 INT
Jalyn Daniels
Rush 99 CAR, 610 YDS, 4 TD
Elyjah Mitchell
Rec 32 REC, 387 YDS, 3 TD

Ronnie Robinson
Pass 33/69, 485 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
Mason Pickett-Hicks
Rush 99 CAR, 741 YDS, 5 TD
DJ Maultsby
Rec 15 REC, 360 YDS, 3 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	NORF	SCST
Points Per Game	35.3	43.6
Total Yards	415.6	461.1
Yards Passing	201.6	234.0
Yards Rushing	214.0	227.1
Points Allowed Per Game	23.4	19.1
Yards Allowed	292.6	241.6
Pass Yards Allowed	191.6	150.9
Rush Yards Allowed	101.0	90.7

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Norfolk St vs SC State prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is NORF +14.5, with a 55% model probability. The model projected Norfolk St 21.5, SC State 33.8 when the pick locked. Model win probability: SC State 78%, Norfolk St 22%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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