NCAAFSat 2:00 PM CTHughes Stadium (MD)

Howard Bison at Morgan State Bears

TV · ESPN+

Sat 2:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 48.5

56%

At lock HOW 22.51–28.69 MORG · 2.7 pts over 48.5

Players

J. Scroggins · HOW
QB
E. James · HOW
Defenses
S. Pierre · HOW
WR
C. Edge · MORG
QB
K. Jenkins Jr. · MORG
Defenses
J. Perry · MORG
WR

Howard Bison

3-4

22.51

Projected

Morgan State Bears

5-2

28.69

HOW 35%MORG 65%

At lock: projected HOW 22.51–28.69 MORG

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

MORG -4.5

MORG -7.0

Total

56.7

48.5

Gap: -2.5 margin, +8.2 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: HOW vs MORG

The model

How this number was built

HOW 22.51–28.69 MORG · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -6.2 vs -7.0 · model MORG 30.6–26.1 HOW
Home field
+3.0 pts to MORG
Record
MORG 5-2 · HOW 3-4
Market prior
Blended 67% toward MORG -7 / total 48.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Ja'Shawn Scroggins
Pass 94/186, 1056 YDS, 6 TD, 5 INT
Eden James
Rush 46 CAR, 302 YDS, 3 TD
Semaj Pierre
Rec 21 REC, 215 YDS

Cameron Edge
Pass 115/175, 1499 YDS, 12 TD, 4 INT
Keith Jenkins Jr.
Rush 51 CAR, 317 YDS, 3 TD
Justin Perry
Rec 26 REC, 468 YDS, 3 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	HOW	MORG
Points Per Game	19.6	28.9
Total Yards	270.9	363.7
Yards Passing	153.9	239.0
Yards Rushing	117.0	124.7
Points Allowed Per Game	31.3	27.1
Yards Allowed	376.9	431.3
Pass Yards Allowed	243.9	311.7
Rush Yards Allowed	133.0	119.6

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Howard vs Morgan St prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 48.5, with a 56% model probability. The model projected Howard 22.5, Morgan St 28.7 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Morgan St 65%, Howard 35%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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