NCAAFSat 11:00 AM CTArthur J. Rooney Athletic Field

Wagner Seahawks at Duquesne Dukes

TV · SportsNet PIT

Sat 11:00 AM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 46.5

54%

At lock WAG 17.86–30.44 DUQ · 1.8 pts over 46.5

Players

B. Newman · WAG
QB
M. Morad · WAG
Defenses
R. Perkins Jr. · WAG
WR
C. Camp · DUQ
QB
N. Davis · DUQ
Defenses
R. Petras · DUQ
WR

Wagner Seahawks

1-6

17.86

Projected

Duquesne Dukes

2-4

30.44

WAG 25%DUQ 75%

At lock: projected WAG 17.86–30.44 DUQ

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

DUQ -6.4

DUQ -13.5

Total

56.2

46.5

Gap: -7.1 margin, +9.7 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: WAG vs DUQ

The model

How this number was built

WAG 17.86–30.44 DUQ · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -7.5 vs -9.5 · model DUQ 31.3–24.9 WAG
Home field
+3.0 pts to DUQ
Record
DUQ 2-4 · WAG 1-6
Market prior
Blended 68% toward DUQ -13.5 / total 46.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Benjamin Newman
Pass 94/165, 912 YDS, 5 TD, 1 INT
Matt Morad
Rush 60 CAR, 201 YDS, 2 TD
Richard Perkins Jr.
Rec 10 REC, 213 YDS, 1 TD

Carson Camp
Pass 64/124, 824 YDS, 5 TD, 6 INT
Ness Davis
Rush 68 CAR, 301 YDS, 1 TD
Ryan Petras
Rec 20 REC, 242 YDS, 1 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	WAG	DUQ
Points Per Game	12.0	16.8
Total Yards	255.7	273.8
Yards Passing	177.9	150.8
Yards Rushing	77.9	123.0
Points Allowed Per Game	36.9	29.3
Yards Allowed	388.7	353.0
Pass Yards Allowed	224.4	163.2
Rush Yards Allowed	164.3	189.8

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Wagner vs Duquesne prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 46.5, with a 54% model probability. The model projected Wagner 17.9, Duquesne 30.4 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Duquesne 75%, Wagner 25%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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