NCAAFSat 11:00 AM CTShark Stadium

Stonehill Skyhawks at Long Island University Sharks

TV · NEC Front Row

Sat 11:00 AM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 38.5

59%

At lock STO 20.22–22.41 LIU · 4.1 pts over 38.5

Players

J. O'Connell · STO
QB
A. Garrett · STO
Defenses
C. Clarke · STO
TE
L. Stanzani · LIU
QB
S. Slade · LIU
Defenses
J. Brown · LIU
WR

Stonehill Skyhawks

2-5

20.22

Projected

Long Island University Sharks

3-5

22.41

STO 45%LIU 55%

At lock: projected STO 20.22–22.41 LIU

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

LIU -0.5

LIU -3.0

Total

51.0

38.5

Gap: -2.5 margin, +12.5 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: STO vs LIU

The model

How this number was built

STO 20.22–22.41 LIU · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -5.0 vs -3.3 · model LIU 25.8–25.2 STO
Home field
+3.0 pts to LIU
Record
LIU 3-5 · STO 2-5
Market prior
Blended 67% toward LIU -3 / total 38.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Jack O'Connell
Pass 112/184, 1267 YDS, 9 TD, 3 INT
Aidan Garrett
Rush 75 CAR, 260 YDS, 2 TD
Cole Clarke
Rec 25 REC, 316 YDS, 2 TD

Luca Stanzani
Pass 73/124, 758 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
Sam Slade
Rush 79 CAR, 298 YDS, 3 TD
Josiah Brown
Rec 9 REC, 171 YDS

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	STO	LIU
Points Per Game	16.9	14.6
Total Yards	296.4	255.5
Yards Passing	191.4	110.8
Yards Rushing	105.0	144.8
Points Allowed Per Game	23.0	26.9
Yards Allowed	356.3	380.5
Pass Yards Allowed	190.6	244.5
Rush Yards Allowed	165.7	136.0

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Stonehill vs Long Island prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 38.5, with a 59% model probability. The model projected Stonehill 20.2, Long Island 22.4 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Long Island 55%, Stonehill 45%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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