NCAAFSat 11:00 AM CTArute Field

New Haven Chargers at Central Connecticut Blue Devils

Sat 11:00 AM CT

Computer pick · Spread

NH +14.5

55%

At lock NH 20.92–33.30 CCSU · NH by 2.1 pts vs NH +14.5

Players

A. Duffy · NH
QB
Z. Laney · NH
Defenses
T. Troy · NH
WR
B. Griffis · CCSU
QB
D. Smith Jr. · CCSU
Defenses
M. Trovarelli · CCSU
WR

New Haven Chargers

2-5 · computer pick

20.92

Projected

Central Connecticut Blue Devils

3-3

33.30

NH 22%CCSU 78%

At lock: projected NH 20.92–33.30 CCSU

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

CCSU -3.1

CCSU -14.5

Total

53.0

54.5

Gap: -11.4 margin, -1.5 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: NH vs CCSU

The model

How this number was built

NH 20.92–33.30 CCSU · Medium confidence

Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Attack / defense
CCSU +0.0 off · NH -0.4 off, shrunk 55%
Home field
+3.0 pts to CCSU
Record
CCSU 3-3 · NH 2-5
Market prior
Blended 82% toward CCSU -14.5 / total 54.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

AJ Duffy
Pass 76/150, 756 YDS, 3 TD, 6 INT
Zaon Laney
Rush 109 CAR, 436 YDS
Tommy Troy
Rec 13 REC, 213 YDS, 2 TD

Brett Griffis
Pass 60/116, 826 YDS, 10 TD, 5 INT
Davon Smith Jr.
Rush 80 CAR, 589 YDS, 5 TD
Michael Trovarelli
Rec 18 REC, 207 YDS, 2 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	NH	CCSU
Points Per Game	14.6	33.2
Total Yards	280.3	352.5
Yards Passing	174.9	164.5
Yards Rushing	105.4	188.0
Points Allowed Per Game	27.1	37.5
Yards Allowed	353.7	431.3
Pass Yards Allowed	214.4	293.8
Rush Yards Allowed	139.3	137.5

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

New Haven vs C Connecticut prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is NH +14.5, with a 55% model probability. The model projected New Haven 20.9, C Connecticut 33.3 when the pick locked. Model win probability: C Connecticut 78%, New Haven 22%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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