NCAAFSat 1:00 PM CTThe DakotaDome

North Dakota Fighting Hawks at South Dakota Coyotes

TV · ESPN+

Sat 1:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Under 56.5

51%

At lock UND 26.74–29.07 SDAK · 0.7 pts under 56.5

Players

J. Kaminski · UND
QB
C. Langama · UND
Defenses
D. Deng · UND
WR
A. Modrzewski · SDAK
QB
C. Pierre Jr. · SDAK
Defenses
B. White · SDAK
WR

North Dakota Fighting Hawks

6-2

26.74

Projected

South Dakota Coyotes

6-2

29.07

UND 44%SDAK 56%

At lock: projected UND 26.74–29.07 SDAK

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

SDAK -2.0

SDAK -2.5

Total

54.4

56.5

Gap: -0.5 margin, -2.1 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: UND vs SDAK

The model

How this number was built

UND 26.74–29.07 SDAK · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -2.2 vs -1.4 · model SDAK 28.2–26.2 UND
Home field
+3.0 pts to SDAK
Record
SDAK 6-2 · UND 6-2
Market prior
Blended 66% toward SDAK -2.5 / total 56.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Jerry Kaminski
Pass 147/220, 1742 YDS, 21 TD, 4 INT
Charles Langama
Rush 65 CAR, 514 YDS, 6 TD
Deng Deng
Rec 34 REC, 518 YDS, 2 TD

Austyn Modrzewski
Pass 123/185, 1734 YDS, 22 TD, 6 INT
Charles Pierre Jr.
Rush 90 CAR, 585 YDS, 7 TD
Brayden White
Rec 35 REC, 468 YDS, 7 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	UND	SDAK
Points Per Game	36.6	39.1
Total Yards	436.5	420.5
Yards Passing	229.5	224.3
Yards Rushing	207.0	196.3
Points Allowed Per Game	25.1	24.4
Yards Allowed	304.4	372.3
Pass Yards Allowed	192.1	197.9
Rush Yards Allowed	112.3	174.4

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

North Dakota vs South Dakota prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 56.5, with a 51% model probability. The model projected North Dakota 26.7, South Dakota 29.1 when the pick locked. Model win probability: South Dakota 56%, North Dakota 44%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NCAAF picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day