NCAAFSat 2:00 PM CTDana J. Dykhouse Stadium

Murray State Racers at South Dakota State Jackrabbits

TV · ESPN+

Sat 2:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

MUR +40.5

63%

At lock MUR 10.84–46.07 SDST · MUR by 5.3 pts vs MUR +40.5

Players

C. Shannon · MUR
QB
T. Campbell · MUR
Defenses
D. Howard · MUR
WR
C. Mason · SDST
QB
J. Johnson · SDST
Defenses
G. Goering · SDST
WR

Murray State Racers

1-6 · computer pick

10.84

Projected

South Dakota State Jackrabbits

5-2

46.07

MUR 1%SDST 99%

At lock: projected MUR 10.84–46.07 SDST

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

SDST -12.8

SDST -40.5

Total

54.4

57.5

Gap: -27.7 margin, -3.1 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: MUR vs SDST

The model

How this number was built

MUR 10.84–46.07 SDST · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -0.9 vs -7.0 · model SDST 33.6–20.8 MUR
Home field
+3.0 pts to SDST
Record
SDST 5-2 · MUR 1-6
Market prior
Blended 81% toward SDST -40.5 / total 57.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Collin Shannon
Pass 49/80, 555 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
Tyrell Campbell
Rush 55 CAR, 286 YDS, 2 TD
Dimitri Howard
Rec 17 REC, 240 YDS, 2 TD

Chase Mason
Pass 63/122, 1003 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
Josiah Johnson
Rush 120 CAR, 734 YDS, 7 TD
Grahm Goering
Rec 23 REC, 356 YDS

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	MUR	SDST
Points Per Game	15.6	36.4
Total Yards	280.7	478.3
Yards Passing	159.7	205.7
Yards Rushing	121.0	272.6
Points Allowed Per Game	41.7	16.7
Yards Allowed	432.6	301.9
Pass Yards Allowed	211.4	176.3
Rush Yards Allowed	221.1	125.6

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Murray St vs S Dakota St prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is MUR +40.5, with a 63% model probability. The model projected Murray St 10.8, S Dakota St 46.1 when the pick locked. Model win probability: S Dakota St 99%, Murray St 1%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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