NCAAFSat 11:00 AM CTBrown Stadium (RI)

Cornell Big Red at Brown Bears

TV · ESPN+

Sat 11:00 AM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 46.5

55%

At lock COR 24.46–24.37 BRWN · 2.3 pts over 46.5

Players

G. Bass-Sulpizio · COR
QB
J. Triplett · COR
Defenses
B. Lee · COR
WR
J. Murphy · BRWN
QB
M. Childs · BRWN
Defenses

Cornell Big Red

3-2

24.46

Projected

Brown Bears

2-3

24.37

COR 50%BRWN 50%

At lock: projected COR 24.46–24.37 BRWN

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

BRWN -2.9

COR -1.5

Total

53.8

46.5

Gap: +4.4 margin, +7.3 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: COR vs BRWN

The model

How this number was built

COR 24.46–24.37 BRWN · Medium confidence

Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Attack / defense
BRWN -0.2 off · COR +0.2 off, shrunk 50%
Home field
+3.0 pts to BRWN
Record
BRWN 2-3 · COR 3-2
Market prior
Blended 68% toward COR -1.5 / total 46.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Garrett Bass-Sulpizio
Pass 94/157, 1087 YDS, 6 TD, 5 INT
Jordan Triplett
Rush 56 CAR, 271 YDS, 4 TD
Brendan Lee
Rec 18 REC, 265 YDS, 1 TD

James Murphy
Pass 114/180, 1237 YDS, 7 INT
Matt Childs
Rush 68 CAR, 279 YDS, 4 TD
Matt Childs
Rec 28 REC, 345 YDS

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	COR	BRWN
Points Per Game	31.4	15.0
Total Yards	401.4	334.6
Yards Passing	224.0	247.8
Yards Rushing	177.4	86.8
Points Allowed Per Game	27.6	13.2
Yards Allowed	368.8	346.0
Pass Yards Allowed	232.8	228.0
Rush Yards Allowed	136.0	118.0

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Cornell vs Brown prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 46.5, with a 55% model probability. The model projected Cornell 24.5, Brown 24.4 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Brown 50%, Cornell 50%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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