NCAAFSat 2:00 PM CTHunter Stadium

Chicago State Cougars at Lindenwood Lions

TV · ESPN+

Sat 2:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

CHST +23.5

59%

At lock CHST 16.74–36.46 LIN · CHST by 3.8 pts vs CHST +23.5

Players

A. Pannell · CHST
QB
C. Edmonds · CHST
Defenses
K. Gray · CHST
WR
P. Battle · LIN
QB
J. Rhodes · LIN
Defenses
D. Krobath · LIN
WR

Chicago State Cougars

1-6 · computer pick

16.74

Projected

Lindenwood Lions

2-4

36.46

CHST 11%LIN 89%

At lock: projected CHST 16.74–36.46 LIN

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

LIN -3.1

LIN -23.5

Total

51.9

53.5

Gap: -20.4 margin, -1.6 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: CHST vs LIN

The model

How this number was built

CHST 16.74–36.46 LIN · Medium confidence

Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Attack / defense
LIN -0.3 off · CHST -0.7 off, shrunk 55%
Home field
+3.0 pts to LIN
Record
LIN 2-4 · CHST 1-6
Market prior
Blended 82% toward LIN -23.5 / total 53.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Ashton Pannell
Pass 150/242, 1564 YDS, 13 TD, 6 INT
Chris Edmonds
Rush 59 CAR, 231 YDS, 5 TD
Kymari Gray
Rec 26 REC, 425 YDS, 5 TD

Pops Battle
Pass 81/136, 872 YDS, 2 TD, 3 INT
Jared Rhodes
Rush 79 CAR, 318 YDS, 2 TD
Drew Krobath
Rec 19 REC, 249 YDS, 1 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	CHST	LIN
Points Per Game	26.6	19.3
Total Yards	326.3	305.3
Yards Passing	242.1	153.0
Yards Rushing	84.1	152.3
Points Allowed Per Game	43.0	30.2
Yards Allowed	469.8	393.5
Pass Yards Allowed	206.4	249.0
Rush Yards Allowed	263.4	144.5

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Chicago St vs Lindenwood prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is CHST +23.5, with a 59% model probability. The model projected Chicago St 16.7, Lindenwood 36.5 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Lindenwood 89%, Chicago St 11%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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