NCAAFSat 1:00 PM CTBeirne Stadium

Stony Brook Seawolves at Bryant Bulldogs

TV · FloSports

Sat 1:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

BRY +3

54%

At lock STBK 26.35–25.12 BRY · BRY by 1.8 pts vs BRY +3

Players

Q. Boyd · STBK
QB
C. Hester · STBK
Defenses
S. Sweitzer · STBK
WR
B. Myer · BRY
QB
O. Ross · BRY
Defenses
S. Fowles · BRY
WR

Stony Brook Seawolves

4-3

26.35

Projected

Bryant Bulldogs

5-2 · computer pick

25.12

STBK 53%BRY 47%

At lock: projected STBK 26.35–25.12 BRY

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

BRY -2.3

STBK -3.0

Total

53.4

50.5

Gap: +5.3 margin, +2.9 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: STBK vs BRY

The model

How this number was built

STBK 26.35–25.12 BRY · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -3.9 vs -3.3 · model BRY 27.9–25.5 STBK
Home field
+3.0 pts to BRY
Record
BRY 5-2 · STBK 4-3
Market prior
Blended 67% toward STBK -3 / total 50.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Quinn Boyd
Pass 156/238, 1785 YDS, 11 TD, 4 INT
CJ Hester
Rush 114 CAR, 549 YDS, 11 TD
Seth Sweitzer
Rec 50 REC, 608 YDS, 5 TD

Brennan Myer
Pass 110/177, 1232 YDS, 5 TD, 3 INT
OJ Ross
Rush 77 CAR, 338 YDS, 3 TD
Shamar Fowles
Rec 27 REC, 365 YDS, 2 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	STBK	BRY
Points Per Game	33.7	20.0
Total Yards	419.7	308.3
Yards Passing	255.0	177.4
Yards Rushing	164.7	130.9
Points Allowed Per Game	32.3	22.0
Yards Allowed	412.3	384.7
Pass Yards Allowed	238.3	181.9
Rush Yards Allowed	174.0	202.9

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Stony Brook vs Bryant prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is BRY +3, with a 54% model probability. The model projected Stony Brook 26.4, Bryant 25.1 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Bryant 47%, Stony Brook 53%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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