NCAAFSat 11:00 AM CTCentreville Bank Stadium

UAlbany Great Danes at Rhode Island Rams

TV · FloSports

Sat 11:00 AM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 45.5

55%

At lock ALB 21.60–26.27 URI · 2.4 pts over 45.5

Players

K. Colon · ALB
QB
R. La Mons · ALB
Defenses
B. Norman · ALB
WR
T. Budge · URI
QB
B. Barrow · URI
Defenses
M. Buchanan · URI
WR

UAlbany Great Danes

4-3

21.60

Projected

Rhode Island Rams

4-3

26.27

ALB 39%URI 61%

At lock: projected ALB 21.60–26.27 URI

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

URI -1.0

URI -6.5

Total

52.7

45.5

Gap: -5.5 margin, +7.2 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: ALB vs URI

The model

How this number was built

ALB 21.60–26.27 URI · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -2.7 vs -1.2 · model URI 26.8–25.9 ALB
Home field
+3.0 pts to URI
Record
URI 4-3 · ALB 4-3
Market prior
Blended 67% toward URI -6.5 / total 45.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Kai Colon
Pass 85/150, 1026 YDS, 10 TD, 5 INT
Rahshan La Mons
Rush 98 CAR, 474 YDS, 5 TD
BJ Norman
Rec 28 REC, 312 YDS, 5 TD

Tyler Budge
Pass 85/153, 872 YDS, 5 TD, 6 INT
Brendon Barrow
Rush 64 CAR, 235 YDS, 1 TD
Marquis Buchanan
Rec 43 REC, 676 YDS, 6 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	ALB	URI
Points Per Game	25.1	25.0
Total Yards	338.3	336.1
Yards Passing	165.4	194.1
Yards Rushing	172.9	142.0
Points Allowed Per Game	18.9	23.7
Yards Allowed	308.1	363.9
Pass Yards Allowed	205.9	185.6
Rush Yards Allowed	102.3	178.3

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

UAlbany vs Rhode Island prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 45.5, with a 55% model probability. The model projected UAlbany 21.6, Rhode Island 26.3 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Rhode Island 61%, UAlbany 39%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NCAAF picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day