NCAAFFri 9:30 PM CTHornet Stadium

Kent State Golden Flashes at Sacramento State Hornets

TV · ESPN2

Fri 9:30 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

SAC +10.5

56%

At lock KENT 27.58–19.40 SAC · KENT by 8.2 pts vs SAC +10.5 · 56% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

D. DeShields · KENT
QB
B. White · KENT
RB
W. Harris · KENT
WR
J. Sharman · SAC
QB
I. Ene · SAC
RB
M. Coleman · SAC
WR

Kent State Golden Flashes

3-5 · W1

119 PF · 244 PA

27.58

Projected

Sacramento State Hornets

1-7 · L6 · computer pick

122 PF · 263 PA

19.40

KENT 70%SAC 30%

At lock: projected KENT 27.58–19.40 SAC

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

KENT -5.8

KENT -10.0

Total

47.3

46.5

Gap: +4.2 margin, +0.8 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: KENT vs SAC

The model

How this number was built

KENT 27.58–19.40 SAC · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
SAC -33.2 vs KENT -21.0 · pred margin -8.6
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -8.4 vs -7.2 · model SAC 25.2–23.8 KENT
Home field
+3.0 pts to SAC
Record
SAC 1-7 · KENT 3-5
Market prior
Blended 66% toward KENT -10 / total 46.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Dru DeShields
Pass 124/218, 1439 YDS, 8 TD, 6 INT
Brandon White
Rush 68 CAR, 235 YDS
Wayne Harris
Rec 40 REC, 552 YDS, 4 TD

Jackson Sharman
Pass 123/218, 1257 YDS, 8 TD, 6 INT
Isaiah Ene
Rush 58 CAR, 303 YDS, 1 TD
Matt Coleman
Rec 39 REC, 492 YDS, 5 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	KENT	SAC
Points Per Game	14.9	15.3
Total Yards	286.0	298.1
Yards Passing	186.0	197.3
Yards Rushing	100.0	100.9
Points Allowed Per Game	30.5	32.9
Yards Allowed	371.0	371.5
Pass Yards Allowed	228.9	194.5
Rush Yards Allowed	142.1	177.0

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Kent State vs Sacramento St prediction · Oct 30, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is SAC +10.5, with a 56% model probability. The model projected Kent State 27.6, Sacramento St 19.4 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Sacramento St 30%, Kent State 70%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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