NCAAFSat 2:00 PM CTFalcon Stadium

UConn Huskies at Air Force Falcons

TV · MW+

Sat 2:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

CONN +3

54%

At lock CONN 26.85–28.02 AFA · AFA by 1.2 pts vs CONN +3 · 54% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

K. Osborne · CONN
QB
C. Bowers · CONN
RB
S. Porter · CONN
WR
L. Szarka · AFA
QB
E. Medders · AFA
QB
S. Kibbee · AFA
TE

UConn Huskies

4-3 · W2 · computer pick

249 PF · 167 PA

26.85

Projected

Air Force Falcons

5-2 · L1

199 PF · 146 PA

28.02

CONN 44%AFA 56%

At lock: projected CONN 26.85–28.02 AFA

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

AFA -1.3

AFA -3.0

Total

54.8

53.5

Gap: -1.7 margin, +1.3 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: CONN vs AFA

The model

How this number was built

CONN 26.85–28.02 AFA · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
AFA -4.8 vs CONN -4.8 · pred margin +2.4
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +2.1 vs +5.9 · model AFA 27.6–30.1 CONN
Home field
+3.0 pts to AFA
Record
AFA 5-2 · CONN 4-3
Market prior
Blended 67% toward AF -3 / total 53.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Kalieb Osborne
Pass 112/182, 1594 YDS, 12 TD, 2 INT
Cyncir Bowers
Rush 80 CAR, 564 YDS, 7 TD
Shamar Porter
Rec 14 REC, 265 YDS, 3 TD

Liam Szarka
Pass 19/38, 296 YDS, 1 TD, 4 INT
Evan Medders
Rush 73 CAR, 490 YDS, 6 TD
Simon Kibbee
Rec 8 REC, 135 YDS

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	CONN	AFA
Points Per Game	35.6	28.4
Total Yards	447.6	405.0
Yards Passing	244.6	67.6
Yards Rushing	203.0	337.4
Points Allowed Per Game	23.9	20.9
Yards Allowed	392.3	296.4
Pass Yards Allowed	284.7	163.9
Rush Yards Allowed	107.6	132.6

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

UConn vs Air Force prediction · Oct 31, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is CONN +3, with a 54% model probability. The model projected UConn 26.9, Air Force 28.0 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Air Force 56%, UConn 44%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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