NCAAFSat 2:30 PM CTAutzen Stadium

#20 Northwestern Wildcats at Oregon Ducks

TV · Peacock

Sat 2:30 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

ORE -3.5

53%

At lock NU 22.47–27.07 ORE · ORE by 4.6 pts vs ORE -3.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

A. Chiles · NU
QB
C. Komolafe · NU
RB
G. Wilde · NU
WR
D. Moore · ORE
QB
J. Davison · ORE
RB

#20Northwestern Wildcats

6-1 · W4

243 PF · 116 PA

22.47

Projected

Oregon Ducks

4-3 · L1 · computer pick

232 PF · 145 PA

27.07

NU 39%ORE 61%

At lock: projected NU 22.47–27.07 ORE

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

ORE -6.4

ORE -3.5

Total

49.5

Gap: +2.9 margin, +0.0 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: NU vs ORE

The model

How this number was built

NU 22.47–27.07 ORE · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
ORE +17.0 vs NU +13.8 · pred margin +4.4
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +10.1 vs +7.8 · model ORE 28.2–21.4 NU
Home field
+3.0 pts to ORE
Record
ORE 4-3 · NU 6-1
Market prior
Blended 67% toward ORE -3.5 / total 49.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Aidan Chiles
Pass 117/164, 1617 YDS, 12 TD, 1 INT
Caleb Komolafe
Rush 88 CAR, 551 YDS, 5 TD
Griffin Wilde
Rec 39 REC, 615 YDS, 4 TD

Dante Moore
Pass 69/99, 926 YDS, 9 TD
Jordon Davison
Rush 88 CAR, 422 YDS, 7 TD
Dakorien Moore
Rec 34 REC, 417 YDS, 4 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	NU	ORE
Points Per Game	34.7	33.1
Total Yards	435.6	423.1
Yards Passing	231.0	277.7
Yards Rushing	204.6	145.4
Points Allowed Per Game	16.6	20.7
Yards Allowed	364.6	325.4
Pass Yards Allowed	211.9	197.6
Rush Yards Allowed	152.7	127.9

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Northwestern vs Oregon prediction · Oct 31, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is ORE -3.5, with a 53% model probability. The model projected Northwestern 22.5, Oregon 27.1 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Oregon 61%, Northwestern 39%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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